Discretion is the better part of valor as you work into market extremes, and that’s essentially a topic the market is telling you needs exploring. Yes, I have been skeptical of the rebounds lately; coming a year-and-a-half or more after we took an ‘all-in’ approach of the market ‘going to the Moon’ if Trump won the election. As I said in January; ‘to the moon; not interstellar space’. Hence there’s a time to buy (plant) such as Trump’s election (and of course that was whether you loved or hated him) and a time to sell (or at least trim, which is what you do at harvest so you can grow again later).  

My forecast was frequently referred to as ‘Rinse & Repeat’, with alternating rallies and declines within a range that doesn’t (yet) challenge the primary, or long-term, uptrend line; but with that being potentially at risk later-on. At the same time we’ve warned that waiting for a ‘trend break’ is unwise from a strategy angle, as the message of the market has been near-parabolic (a pattern that’s unsustainable), while in my view once they crack primary or macro channels, it risks having to compete with huge institutions trying so hard to raise cash.  

Hence that would be a time of ‘trap door’ keyhole exit risk to happily avoid. The forecast for the post-spike (to the Moon) rally was for stocks to more or less orbit, not crash to Earth super-violently. However, the longer stock Indexes, sustained by overpriced momentum stocks commonly referred to as FANG’s (it’s really FANG ++), remain high; the risk of a plummet rises.  

A market that is ‘uncorrected’ should not embody confidence, but concern.  

In-sum: the market remains defensive and dangerous. 

Bottom line: danger persists; and it is difficult to ascertain the impact of the New York Times ‘insider’ OP-ED of course igniting discussion everywhere. However it’s worth reading; and as I have, in entirety, I’d say there is no National Security issue as contended. I would rather hope that calm contemplation would be in order while most of course will speculate if VP Pence wrote the Op-Ed; which he denies.