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Archives by Year:
S&P 500 Snapshot: A Week Of Gains After Minor Losses
The S&P 500 made gains each day of this week, ending with a weekly gain of 1.16%. The index is up 7.76% YTD. The U.S. Treasury puts the closing yield on the 10-year note at 2.99%. Here is a daily chart of the S&P 500. Today’s selling puts the volume at its 50-day moving average. […]
USDJPY Weekly Analysis – Saturday, Sept.15
USDJPY is facing 112.15 resistance. A breakthrough at this level would indicate that the uptrend from 104.63 has resumed, then a further rise towards 115.50 resistance is possible. Support is at 109.77, a breakdown below this level would confirm that the uptrend had completed at 113.17 already, then the next target would be at the […]
Trump To Announce $200 Billion In New China Tariffs As Soon As Monday
In the latest installment of the story that just won’t go away, the WSJ reported on Saturday that – as Bloomberg reported first yesterday – the Trump administration plans to announce new tariffs on up to $200 billion in Chinese goods as soon as Monday and otherwise “within days”, in a move that will likely render moot […]
Why Imports Are Crucial To GDP Growth
In recent posts, Pierre Lemieux and Scott Sumner refuted a common but mistaken idea: that because gross domestic product can be calculated by taking national expenditure data (i.e., the “C + I + G” part of the equation) and adding the value of exports while subtracting the value of imports (the “X – M” in said equation), imports reduce GDP. This […]
The Stealth Reason Why The Stock Market Keeps On Rising
The US stock market continues to rise because it is increasingly dominated by shrinking “availability & supply”, All three stock “Pools” are shrinking in a stealth & unappreciated fashion, There is an increasing potential for a “Minsky Melt-Up” based on an even stronger US dollar (i.e. An Emerging Market Flight to Safety), Expect a coming […]
State Of European Banks: The ECB View Vs Reality
The ECB would like you to believe the European banking system is sound and banks are better regulated. They aren’t. Ten years after Lehman there are numerous statements from bureaucrats, academics, media and others that banks are now better regulated, more solid and liquidity problems vanished. Reader Lars from Norway Emailed this assessment today. […]
Which Year Is It? 1998, 2011 Or 2015?
Picking up where we left off last week, we discussed the sell-off after the initial breakout to all-time highs and the continuation of the bull market rally. To wit: “Currently, it is pathway #2a which continues to play out fairly close to the prediction from two weeks ago. But it is make, or break, next week as […]
Savings And Loan Industry Outlook: Near-Term Prospects Look Bleak
Over the last few years, an improving domestic economy and rising demand for residential mortgages have favored the U.S. savings and loan industry. Rising income of Americans, along with relatively low interest rates, has supported the housing market by enhancing demand for residential mortgages. This has helped the industry grow over this period. In fact, […]
EUR/USD Forecast Sept. 17-21 – Big Bounce We Can Believe In?
EUR/USD had a choppy week amid market mood swings. What’s next? Apart from Trump’s tariffs and Brexit, the PMI data stand out. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. The European Central Bank left its policy unchanged and President Mario Draghi surprised with an upbeat tone. The […]
This Week In Stocks – Saturday, Sept. 15
Our analysis of the S&P 500 (SPX) is for stocks to continue with some minor upside before the declining phase of the current market cycle begins. Our minor support zone is between 2860-2880. Yet once we hit late September, we see the potential for much higher risk, which should last through the end of the […]
