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Archives by Year:
GBP: Sterling Continues To Benefit From A Lack Of Bad News
by Nick Cawley , Analyst Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Bullish STERLING (GBP) TALKING POINTS: Brexit continues to dominate although hard UK data surprises to the upside. Bank of England remains cautious as talks progress. We remain bullish on Sterling going into next week after the latest jobs, wages and GDP data all came in better-than-expected this week, while a […]
The Continuing Endgame For Bretton Woods II And The Role Of Gold
“Under this system [Bretton Woods II and the petrodollar], the U.S. is running massive current account deficits to be the source of export-led growth for other countries.To fund this deficit, central banks, particularly those on the Pacific Rim, are buying up dollars and dollar-denominated assets.” Daniel Drezner “The inability of global leaders to address global […]
This Hasn’t Happened In 10 Years: S&P 500 Buybacks Edition
Who could have seen this coming? For the first time in a decade, buybacks account for the biggest share of corporate cash use by S&P 500 companies. In the lead up to the passage of the Trump tax cuts late last year, critics argued that invariably, corporations would use their windfall to return cash to […]
10 Years And 10 Lessons From The Financial Crisis
10 years. It feels like yesterday. Then again, sometimes when I look at the economic data it feels like it never even happened. Whether you feel like the crisis is a distant memory or still lingering I think we can all agree that these kinds of big events serve as important lessons for understanding how […]
Week In Review: $1.4 Billion In China Life Science Deals And Financings
Vivo Capital, a US-China healthcare investment firm, closed a new private equity fund at an oversubscribed $635 million (see story). The Vivo Opportunity Fund will invest in US and China small to mid-cap public life sciences companies with novel products in development. Vivo raised $750 million for its previous PE fund in 2015, and it closed a $100 […]
This Is Why Interest Rate Fears Will Resurface
Interest rates impact every facet of the economy – home sales, retail, auto, business loans, student debt, and more. As interest rates continue to creep up will fears hit the stock market? During this crucial weekend video newsletter update we look at that possibility and what trading opportunities you could take to profit or hedge […]
Near-Term Dollar Outlook – Saturday, Sept. 15
Contrary to our expectations, there was very little follow-through dollar buying after the jump in hourly earnings reported on September 7. In fact, the dollar lost ground against all the major currencies last week but the Japanese yen. With the help of rising rates and some stability in emerging markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index finished the […]
Inflation Falls: Is The Economy Even Late Cycle?
As we previously discussed, real wage growth is becoming a reality, having appeared in August. Average hourly earnings were up 2.9% and weekly earnings growth was 3.2%. Inflation stats have come in below expectations as we will discuss in this article. Before we get to that, it’s worth noting that the Fed will continue along with […]
Producer Price Inflation – Very Benign
Producer Price Inflation – PPI Final Demand The breakeven inflation rate and treasury yields have increased every year over year since hourly earnings growth hit a cycle high. The August PPI report missed expectations widely, signaling inflation isn’t a threat at all. As you can see in the chart below, month over month PPI was down […]
Despite $1 Trillion Market Caps, A Stock Market Crash In 2019 Is Likely
The Tech Stocks Pose the Biggest Risk of a Stock Market Crash in 2019 Despite market cap success to the tune of a respective trillion dollars for Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Amazon.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), there’s a real risk of a major stock market crash. Pundits reveled in Apple’s achievement, Amazon’s a little less enthusiastically – it was […]
