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Archives by Year:
The Business Cycle
Today’s topic is the U.S. business cycle. Manufacturing PMIs moved up to a new cycle high and the household delinquency rate dropped to a new cycle low. Bank lending standards continued to ease. Video Length: 00:06:28
Markets Struggle To Rally; What Next?
It has been a tricky last few days. The bounce in the Russell 2000 off the 20-day MA and key support of 1,705 has struggled to follow through on what should have been a strong support test. Technicals are a bit of a mixed bag with ‘sell’ triggers in +DI/-DI and MACD. Today’s ‘doji/hammer’ is […]
The Three Largest Cryptocurrencies – Wednesday, Sept. 12
With so much focus on bitcoin lately, we’ve added a new weekly update that tracks the three largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin, Ether, and Ripple. According to Wikipedia, a cryptocurrency is “a digital asset designed to work as a medium of exchange that uses cryptography to secure its transactions, to control the creation of additional […]
Another Natural Gas Rally Fails
The October natural gas contract tried to break out higher this morning only to reverse hard and settle flat on the day. Yet again the October led the way higher this morning as later contracts lagged, and we continue to see the October/November X/V contract spread skyrocket. Prices got up to $2.869 before reversing, justifying […]
Beige Book Slightly Less Positive, But Showing Strong Growth
The Beige Book was released today with mostly positive findings. Districts generally reported moderate growth across the board. Transportation and manufacturing industries claimed moderate growth, while construction and real estate were slightly less positive. Our Bespoke Beige Book Index is still showing growth, but saw a decrease from the last period. The index is constructed […]
A Simple Choice
Is it a shortage of workers, or a shortage of work? Structural issues with Americans and who they are, or macro issues about which Americans have been fed a load of crap for more than a decade? You can see why those who may have been manufacturing raw manure might have an interest in swaying […]
“How Long Til All Hell Breaks Loose”: This Is Now The Strongest Ever Rally During A Fed Tightening Cycle
The US stock market just keeps crushing historical records: longest bull market ever, S&P rising above 2,900, two trillion-dollar stocks, an unprecedented divergence between US stock and the rest of the world, and now – the strongest ever rally during a Fed tightening period. According to an analysis by Crescat Capital’s Tavi Costa, since the first […]
CNH Vs CNY: Differences Between The Two Yuan
WHAT IS CNH AND CNY AND WHAT ARE THE MAIN DIFFERENCES? CNH refers to the Chinese Yuan in the offshore market, which is outside of Mainland China (the onshore market). China’s capital markets, including the FX market, are controlled and not fully opened yet. This leads to different features of the Chinese currency in the onshore and […]
E Miners Confirmed Yesterday’s Gap Reversals
Miners performed well today and confirmed yesterday’s gap reversals. We should see (at least) a 1-2 week rebound. I’ll adjust my portfolio back to net-long sometime tomorrow unless prices mysteriously collapse overnight. Several individual miners formed bullish reversal patterns (see below). Gold closed above $1210 and the short-term trendline. However, it needs to close progressively […]
Are The Metals Rising From The Grave?
Last night, we looked at the sardonic bull wearing a crown with 5 distinct warning signals. To review, the first one was certainly Semiconductors (SMH). Today, not only did SMH confirm the warning phase, it also broke the 200 DMA, hence, entered an unconfirmed distribution phase. Furthermore, should SMH’s price remain below 103.75 level by […]
