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Archives by Year:
The End Of The Tour
The quarter ends today (at least as far as equities go). As of this writing, it’s a fairly red screen. Looking at the ES below, we can see the first Rally For No Good Reason (RED arrow) took place after the Fed announced an interest rate increase and signaled they would no longer being “accommodative”. […]
Divergences Similar To 2007 Taking Place, Says Joe Friday
This 4-pack compares the price action of today with the price action of the 2007 highs in the Dow Jones Home Construction Index, Bank Index & Real Estate. Before the S&P peaked in 2007, Home Construction, Banks and Real Estate started creating a series of lower highs, diverging with the S&P. Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am– Divergences similar […]
Another Brick In The Wall
The walls are closing in on the oil bears. Underestimations of current oil demand, as well as overestimation of shale oil production potential, has left the oil market short of supply. While oil bears hope that estimations of lower economic growth going forward will slow demand, the reality is that it will continue to grow. […]
PCE Price Index: August Headline & Core – Friday, Sept. 28
The BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays report for August was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.11% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 2.22% year-over-year (YoY). The latest Core PCE index (less Food and Energy) came in at 0.04% MoM and 1.96% YoY. Core PCE remains below […]
Rail Week Ending Saturday, September 22: Rail Continues To Have Relatively Strong Growth
Week 38 of 2018 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data Rail continues to have relatively strong growth. We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the […]
A Tesla Without Musk? Barclays Calculates Elon Is Worth $130 To The Stock Price
Tesla shares have continued their plunge this morning, down nearly 13% from the Thursday close in the aftermath of the SEC securities fraud lawsuit aimed at Elon Musk directly, as investors realize that in addition to seeking unspecified monetary penalties, the regulator will ask a judge to bar Musk from serving as an officer or […]
Japan Focus: Positive Earnings Power
Japan is not a value trap. Against a backdrop of very attractive equity valuations—at 13.7x, the TOPIXprice-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has dropped back to the lowest 5% level reported over the past decade —the trigger for upside performance must come from positive earnings surprises. Our analysis suggests the probability of a sharp positive inflection in earnings visibility is about […]
GBP/USD Faces Further Bear Pressure, Targets 1.3000 Zone
GBP/USD faces further bear pressure as it weakens further on the back of its Thursday sell off. Resistance stands at the 1.3100 with a turn above here allowing for more strength to build up towards the 1.3150 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3200 level followed by the 1.3250 level. Support lies at the […]
Market Outlook Sees Treasury Yields Continuing To Trend Higher
The prospect of more interest-rate increases in the absence of rising inflation, based on the Federal Reserve’s latest forecast, strikes some as unnecessarily risky for the economy. But for good or ill, the central bank remains on track to lift rates further and the Treasury market (still) expects no less after the 25-basis-point increase from […]
Gold Resumes Bearish Trend
A quick update to my gold post of 18th September where I suggested that any breakaway for the precious metal from the volume point of control in the $1200 per ounce region was more likely to be to the downside. And indeed this has been in the case in the break lower of the past […]
