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Archives by Year:
Mexico Learns How To Play Trump’s “Let’s Make A Deal” Game
What happens when everyone reads the same book? Answer: They all do the same things. Reuters reports Mexico Wants Steel Dispute Ended Before New NAFTA Signed. Mexico wants to end to a tariff dispute over steel and aluminum with the United States prior to signing off on a reworked trade agreement with its northern neighbor, Mexican […]
Sentiment Diverges From Stock Action
MON Sector Strength – TUE Rates – WED Medium-Term – THU Commodities Currencies – FRI Sentiment – SAT Longer-Term The Longer-Term Outlook I am feeling very negative towards the stock market again, so it is good therapy for me to start with the most bullish chart to even out my mood. This chart below is clearly […]
AUD/USD Forecast Sept. 10-14 – Will It Challenge 0.70?
The Australian dollar extended its dive on concerns about new US tariffs on China and amid amid mixed data. The jobs report stands out in the upcoming week. Will the pair challenge the round 0.70 level? Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. While the US did not announce the immediate […]
Here Is Goldman’s ‘Cross Currents’ List For The S&P This Fall
Reconciling the myriad tailwinds supporting U.S. stocks near record highs and the laundry list of potential hurdles that have the potential to catalyze equity weakness on the way to making a decisive directional call is virtually impossible in the current environment due to the sheer number of embedded contingencies in the narrative. I’ve talked a […]
SPX Reverses From All-Time High
VIX closed above Long-term resistance at 14.25, confirming a probable buy signal in the VIX. The Cycles Model shows a likely surge in strength for the VIX through mid-October. (Bloomberg) Strategists are predicting a pickup in volatility after an usually quiet August, seeing choppy waters ahead for traders who took a summer break. U.S. stock […]
Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of September 10 And 17
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of September 10 September 10 Consumer Credit – July $14.0B 10.2 14.0 September 11 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index […]
Looking Ahead To Q3 Earnings Season
In looking ahead to the Q3 earnings season here are the key points: Total earnings for the S&P 500 index are expected to be up +18.1% in Q3 from the same period last year on +7.2% higher revenues, the 6th time in the last 7 quarters of double-digit earnings growth. Q3 earnings growth is expected to […]
It’s Make Or Break
Two weeks ago I laid out the potential pathways for the market suggesting that with the markets very oversold a pullback to support was likely. To wit: “While I point out the prevailing risks, and the disconnect between bullish sentiment and hard data, the reality is the bull market remains intact. Over the last several […]
