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Archives by Year:
EUR/USD Initiates Bullish Series Despite Disappointing Euro-Area Data
EURO TALKING POINTS EUR/USD climbs to a fresh weekly-high (1.1659) even as data prints coming out of the euro-area instill a weakened outlook for the monetary union, and recent price action warns of a larger advance as the exchange rate initiates a fresh series of higher highs & lows. EUR/USD INITIATES BULLISH SERIES DESPITE DISAPPOINTING EURO-AREA […]
Peak Prices, Capital Waves Receding: Tsunami Alert
The Canadian dollar has fallen nearly 5% against the US dollar year-to-date and compared to emerging market (EM) currencies that decline is small. Of the 24 most traded EM currencies, only the Mexican Peso has managed to eke out a small gain against the greenback year to date, while several others are down 10% and […]
WTI Tumbles On Inventory, Demand Disappointments
WTI has traded sideways (below $69) since last night’s smaller than expected crude draw from API, but algos could not figure out what to do as crude inventories dropped notably but products and Cushing saw stocks rise. Investors “will look at export numbers to get a handle on global demand to see if it is softening”, Phil […]
First Look At August: ADP Says 163K New Nonfarm Private Jobs
The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the ADP August estimate of 163K new nonfarm private employment jobs, […]
Strength In The Services Sector
The release of the August ISM Non-Manufacturing report handily exceeded forecasts coming in at a level of 58.5 versus consensus estimates for a reading of 56.8. The 1.7 point spread between the actual and report number was also the biggest beat relative to expectations since the January report which was released on 2/5. On a combined basis, […]
August 2018 ADP Job Growth Is 163,000
ADP reported non-farm private jobs growth at 163,000 which was under expectations. Analyst Opinion of ADP Employment Situation This month the rate of ADPs private employment year-over-year growth remained in the tight range seen over this year. Last month’s employment numbers were revised marginally downward. ADP employment has not been a good predictor of BLS […]
How (And Where) To Stay Bullish On IG Credit
Investors are nervous. In a recent JPMorgan survey,1 the bank highlighted that investment-grade (IG) credit would likely face several headwinds through the end of the year due to increased supply, less-favorable fundamentals and noise from the midterm elections. In our view, a straightforward way to combat these challenges is by taking a fundamental approach and increasing positions in the short […]
Trump Is Winning The Trade War
Market will rip on a Mexico/US Deal Trump continues to throw the U.S.’s economic weight around. He has picked fights with pretty much every major trading partner: Europe, Canada, Mexico and China. Any movement in his favor means major economic boosts in the form of greater exports and domestic production. The stock markets have already concluded […]
What Do Recent CoT Report Really Imply For Gold Prices?
The price of gold is likely to soar. This is what recent the CoT report suggests. At least, people say so. But what do you think? CoT Gold Report Revealed Something Unusual in August 2018 Many of our Readers have been asking about the recent traders’ position at the Comex. Because we care about investors, we […]
Sterling Jumps After UK And Germany Reach Truce On Brexit
The sterling jumped sharply yesterday after progress appeared to be made between the UK and the EU countries. Yesterday, Germany and the UK abandoned key demands, which increased the chances of a deal. Germany said that it was ready to accept a less detailed agreement on UK’s future with the EU. The UK on its […]
