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Archives by Year:
A Perspective On Secular Bull And Bear Markets – Tuesday, September 4
Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? At this point, nine-plus years later, the S&P 500 has set a series of inflation-adjusted record highs based on monthly averages of daily closes. Let’s examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of […]
ISM Manufacturing Blowout
According to the most recent release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI report, August was not just a good month, it was great! While economists were expecting a modest downtick in the headline index, the actual reading saw a pretty sharp uptick, rising to 61.3, which was the highest reading since May 2004. With consensus expectations […]
Oil With A Shooting Star Reversal Pattern
In the Daily chart of Oil prices, I have noticed that we might be forming a bearish reversal pattern called shooting star. If price closes at current or lower levels a meaningful top could be in and a reversal could be starting. Oil prices have rallied (more than I expected) from 64.50$ to 71.50$ in […]
The Stock Market: An Extremely Long Trend That’s Ending In 2019?
The S&P 500 has now been above its 12 monthly moving average (i.e. 1 year) for 30 consecutive months. This is an extremely long time. All good things must come to an end. So when will this? This is what happens next to the S&P 500 (historically) when it spent 30 consecutive months above its […]
Peso, Rand Plummet As Emerging Market Crisis Deepens
The EM contagion is slamming currencies around the globe, and while the Turkish Lira remains relatively immune for the time being, traders are now focusing their attention on the South African rand and the Argentine peso, both of which are in freefall this morning. The ZAR has plunged 3.2%, the most since Nov. 10, 2016, […]
Aussie Jumps After RBA Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
The Australian dollar jumped today after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the interest rates decision. As expected, the bank left interest rates unchanged and indicated that the current expansionary policies will continue for a considerable period. In the statement, governor Lowe said: ‘The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the […]
Gold And Silver’s Stormy September
There were only a few analyses that we started with a quote, and there were even fewer that we began by quoting a song. It may even be the first one ever. I am the storm and I am the wonder And the flashlights, nightmares And sudden explosions – Royksopp, “What Else Is There” And you […]
ISM Manufacturing Index: PMI Highest Since 2011
Today the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for August. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 61.3 percent, an increase of 3.2 percent from 58.1 the previous month. Today’s headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 57.6 percent. Here is the key analysis from the report: “The August PMI® registered 61.3 percent, an increase […]
Regional Trade Agreements: A Popularity Nosedive
The Doha round of the World Trade Organization talks started way back in 2001, and seems to have come to a standstill. Regional trade agreements became the preferred path for many nations, with 20-25 per year being negotiated most years from 2002-2016. Then the number drops off sharply in 2017, and falls almost to zero […]
5 Reasons For A USD Surge In September
Dark clouds are gathering over global markets. A mix of economic, political, and seasonal factors weigh. The perfect storm could be beneficial for the US Dollar at the expense of all the rest. While many traders were on holiday during the summer, markets were not at ease with quite a few issues emerging, so far […]
