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Archives by Year:
Markets Rally In My Absence; Dow And S&P Opportunity
Before my vacation I had noted three indices to watch undergoing support tests: Semiconductors, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average had all presented buying opportunities. However, I had also thought these rallies would stall out when they got back to resistance – this did not prove to be the case. With the exception of the Semiconductor Index […]
An Exceptionally Strong Summer For Stocks – What’s Next?
This has been an exceptionally strong summer for the U.S. stock market. The S&P is now up 5 months in a row, which makes forward returns very bullish (see study). We can look at this from another angle. The S&P has increased >3% in July and >3% in August. This is rare. It has only […]
Market Quality Goes Positive Again
My core measures of market quality have gone positive again. My measures of market trend and strength are lagging. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, this suggests a somewhat choppy market ahead (although I was completely wrong on the chop keeping us from new highs in the S&P 500 Index — so maybe the consolidation will […]
Investigating Claims Regarding The Bitcoin Hash Rate: Fact Vs. Fantasy
Analysts claim the bitcoin hash rate leads price. Let’s investigate. Price Follows Hash Rate Claim Max and I agree on some things and disagree on others. Place that Hash Rate Tweet into our bucket of disagreements as the following chart clearly demonstrates. Data for the above chart from Blockchain Charts. They have a huge error on the […]
Einhorn’s Greenlight Crashes 25% YTD After 8% Drop In August
Two months ago, in our ongoing chronicle of the pain suffered by David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital, we reported that based on interim monthly numbers, the fund had lost a massive 8% in the month of June, bringing his – and his LPs’ – total loss for the year to 19%. The reason: Einhorn got clobbered […]
Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of September 3 And 10
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of September 3 September 4 PMI Manufacturing Index – August 54.3 54.5 54.5 ISM (Mfg) – August 57.9 58.1 57.6 Construction Spending – July 0.4% -1.1 0.4 […]
USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 3-7- NAFTA Is Finally Here, Sort Of
Dollar/CAD dropped sharply on the deal between the US and Canada and also the weakness of the US Dollar. Will the trend continue? Canada’s jobs report stands out. Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The US and Mexico struck a deal and Canada is set to join. The C$ advanced on […]
Bulls Hold Into Labor Day
Last week, we discussed the breakout to all-time highs: “Get out your party hats ladies and gentlemen, the market closed at all-time highs on Friday finally eclipsing the January peak. After 145 days of slogging, the ‘bull market is back, baby!’” Over the last several months, we have been discussing the ongoing “pathways” leading us back […]
USD/ZAR Forecast For September 2018
Many of you may be wondering why my monthly forecast includes the South African Rand. If you are not someone who follows global events, you’re not aware of the fact that the South African government is starting to confiscate farmland from white farmers. On the other side of that equation, you have the armed militia […]
