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USD/CAD Forecast October 1-5 – Complicated CAD, Jobs Report Awaits
Dollar/CAD had a somewhat wild week: rising on NAFTA worries but dropping back down on upbeat Canadian GDP. The first week of October features the all-important jobs report. Where will the C$ go next? Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The US wants to move forward with the agreement with Mexico, […]
Book Value Home Builders Belie The Stock Market’s Stellar Q3
The S&P 500 (SPY) printed its best quarter since the fourth quarter of 2013. While the index gained 7.2% for the third quarter of 2018, home builders went in the exact opposite direction. The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) tumbled 7.4% for Q3 and is now down a whopping 20.9% year-to-date. The selling accelerated in […]
A Pause That Refreshes?
That was so last week, “Get out your party hats ladies and gentlemen, the markets hit all-time highs. After increasing equity exposure in portfolios on the 11th, as the markets pulled back to the previous break-out support levels, I suggested a push to new highs was likely.” The one thing that we addressed several times last week on our […]
Mortgage Rates Highest Since Early 2011: Fed Could Push US Into Recession
The 15-year average mortgage rate is 4.22%. The 30-year rate is 4.72%. These are the highest rates since early 2011. Bleakley Advisory Group’s Peter Boockvar says the Fed and Global Central Banks Could Push the U.S. into Recession. Mortgage Rates Highest Since Early 2011 Mortgage News Daily sees things slightly differently but the the disagreement […]
Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 1 And 8
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of October 1 October 1 ISM (Mfg) – Sept 59.8 61.3 59.9 Construction Spending – August 0.5% 0.1 0.5 October 2 […]
SPX Cycles Imply A Decline Through Early November
VIX closed beneath Short-term resistance at 12.60, leaving it on a sell signal for a third week in a row. It appears to be in a holding pattern for the end of the quarter. However, the Cycles Model shows a likely surge in strength for the VIX through late October. (MarketWatch) Stock-market investors should […]
Gold Gann Update
The latest swing down in gold is testing a long time 1×1 Gann angle. Should we expect a lower prices? Or is this swing lower being used to accumulate at better prices by the large accounts. As always we find out how strong the bull hands are when support is tested. It is very obvious the […]
Euro Q4 Forecast: Euro Stabilization In Q3 May Offer Base For A Rally In Q4
After persistent selling in the second quarter, the Euro was able to stabilize through the third quarter. Contributing to that balance was the market’s belief of resolution – at least, on the path to resolution – for concerns over the region’s growth, the trajectory of European Central Bank monetary policy, and the budgetary plans of […]
Fed And Italy Lift Dollar Tone
We had anticipated that the dollar’s downside correction against the European currencies was over or nearly so and looked for the dollar to find better traction. The Dollar Index held above the previous week’s low. The euro’s high for the week was recorded on Monday near $1.1815. With the weight of Brexit, sterling was unable […]
Draining Physical Gold From Funds And Trusts To Supply The Markets Of Asia – An Extreme In Speculation
It is interesting, but little noted, that during similar price declines, physical gold is removed from the funds and trusts, while silver remains almost untouched. That is because the ‘gold float’ of physical gold available to supply the steadily aggressive demand is critically low, whereas silver, while also beaten down by speculators, sees no decline, […]
