Stocks Outlook – Thursday, Sept. 6


Thoughts

  • Investors Intelligence Bulls has reached 60%. Not medium term bearish for stocks.
  • Banks’ lending standards are easing even more. Medium-long term bullish for the stock market.
  • Heavy Truck Sales are making new highs. Medium-long term bullish for the stock market.
  • Unit profits are down: this equities bull market doesn’t have a lot of years left.
  • Philadelphia Fed’s Leading Index is falling: this equities bull market doesn’t have a lot of years left.
  • Why most hedge funds & professional traders have consistently underperformed from 2009-present.
  • 1 am: Investors Intelligence Bulls has reached 60%. Not medium term bearish.

    The Investors Intelligence ratio has reached 60% for the first time since January 2018. This has caused some traders to turn bearish on the stock market for the medium term.

    *The Investors Intelligence Bullish Percentage is used as a contrarian indicator. The more bulls there are, the more bearish this is deemed to be.

    However, a more detailed look at the Investors Intelligence Bullish Percentage demonstrates that there’s nothing bearish about the bullish percentage exceeded 60%. Investors Intelligence Bullish Percentage spends a lot of time at 60%.

    1 am: Banks’ lending standards are easing even more. Medium-long term bullish for the stock market.

    Banks’ lending standards continue to ease (trend downwards).

     

    Easing lending standards is a medium-long term bullish sign for the stock market and economy. It gives this aged economic expansion and bull market a little more juice via easier loans and more credit.

    As you can see, lending standards tend to get tighter in the last rally of a bull market.

    1 am: Heavy Truck Sales are making new highs. Medium-long term bullish for the stock market.

    The latest reading for Heavy Truck Sales went up from 485k to 494k. But more importantly, Heavy Truck Sales are still trending higher.

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