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In Search Of The Allegedly Steepening Yield Curve

In Search Of The Allegedly Steepening Yield Curve

Oct 18, 2018 Finance, No picture 0

There has been a lot of commentaries recently about the steepening yield curve. Let’s investigate with pictures. The chart shows the spread between the 10-year treasury yield and the two- and five-year treasury yields. The steepening is hard to spot so let’s hone in. Detail of Yield Curve Steepening   Wait a second you say. […]
Housing Less Affordable, But Not Dramatically So

Housing Less Affordable, But Not Dramatically So

Oct 18, 2018 Finance 0

Housing data has come in weaker than expected across a number of indicators over the past several months, and as we discussed last night in The Closer, the Home Construction ETF (ITB) is near its worst levels versus the broad market in 6 1/2 years. With home prices relatively high, mortgage rates rising, a lack of cheap […]
The Party Is Over

The Party Is Over

Oct 18, 2018 Finance 0

“What a difference a day makes”! Well, we didn’t get the sun and the flowers like in Dinah Washington’s song but more like storm and showers. For the ones who don’t remember Dinah, Amy Winehouse made a more recent version of the song. Last week I warned investors again, in the strongest tone possible, of […]
Purchasing Power And The Exchange Rate

Purchasing Power And The Exchange Rate

Oct 18, 2018 Finance, No picture 0

According to popular thinking, a key factor in the foreign currency exchange rate determination is the state of the balance of payments. Following this logic, an increase in imports gives rise to an increase in the demand for foreign currency. To obtain the foreign currency importers sell the domestic currency for it. As a result, […]
October 2018 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Insignificantly Declined

October 2018 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Insignificantly Declined

Oct 18, 2018 Finance 0

The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey insignificantly declined but remains in expansion. Key elements declined. Analyst Opinion of the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Consider this a weaker report than last month as key elements declined – and backlog now is in contraction. This is a very noisy index which readers should be reminded is […]
EUR/USD, GBP/USD Trade Lower After Underwhelming Brexit Progress

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Trade Lower After Underwhelming Brexit Progress

Oct 18, 2018 Finance, No picture 0

As the two-day EU Summit drew to a close Thursday, it would seem Brexit is still very much a work in progress. Although nothing was cemented either way – deal or no deal – officials from both parties expressed optimism and announced agreement over a few key issues. One such issue was the possibility of […]
Conference Board Leading Economic Index: “Economy Will Continue Expanding Through 2018”

Conference Board Leading Economic Index: “Economy Will Continue Expanding Through 2018”

Oct 18, 2018 Finance, No picture 0

The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for September increased to 111.8 from 111.2 in August. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) came in at 104.4, up from 104.3 the previous month. The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased again in September. Positive gains from most components, except for weekly hours in manufacturing and building permits, […]
US Stocks Slump As Italian Risk Spikes To 5-Year Highs

US Stocks Slump As Italian Risk Spikes To 5-Year Highs

Oct 18, 2018 Finance 0

As we discussed yesterday, the recent bout of optimism over Italian assets was not meant to last, following what was first a warning of an imminent sovereign rating downgrade by an Italian official, followed by a report that the EU Commission would reject the Italian 2019 budget. And while there have been no material new developments, […]
5 Stocks To Make The Most Of A United Hawkish Fed

5 Stocks To Make The Most Of A United Hawkish Fed

Oct 18, 2018 Finance, No picture 0

Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September meeting confirmed that the central bank is most likely to continue hiking benchmark lending rates at a gradual pace this year and beyond. Rising interest rates are bad news for most stocks as it raises borrowing costs and squeezes profit margin. On the other hand, banks and other […]
Bulls Stand Their Ground

Bulls Stand Their Ground

Oct 18, 2018 Finance 0

There may not be a whole lot of them, but among the bulls that remain, they held firm in the latest week as equity markets attempted to regain their footing. According to the weekly sentiment survey from AAII, bullish sentiment increased this week from 30.6% up to 33.9%. While slightly more than a third of investors […]