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Archives by Year:
The End Of Easy Money
This is the end. The end of accommodation. The end of easy money. The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates last month for the 8th time, bringing the Effective Fed Funds Rate up to 2.18%, its highest level since April 2008. More importantly, the Fed Funds Rate now stands above U.S. core inflation (2.17%) for the […]
Sweden In Pole Position To Become The First Cashless Country
The world as a whole is slowly moving towards being completely cashless. However, there are still those small transactions that require a little paper currency. Where other countries might dream about a cash-free society, Sweden might be the first to make it a reality. Sweden is already thought of by many as the most cashless […]
Congratulations Workers, You Now Make 0.5% More Than A Year Ago
In real (inflation-adjusted) terms workers make 0.5% more than a year ago, assuming one believes the CPI. Last Thursday, the BLS posted real earnings month-over-month. Here are the charts. Real Earnings All Employees For all employees, the BLS reports “Real average hourly earnings increased 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, from September 2017 to September 2018”. Real […]
October Doesn’t Disappoint: Volatility Is Back After A Tranquil Third Quarter
According to the 2018 edition of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, October has been a “great” time to buy. Once ranked last in terms of stock performance, the 10th month has delivered relatively average returns since 1950. What makes it so attractive is that it’s followed by November and December, historically among the very best months for stocks. […]
Another Round Of Cold Props Nat Gas Back Up
Mother Nature must be a natural gas bull, as after selling later last week the front of the natural gas strip rallied today on colder long-range forecasts over the weekend. The November contract spiked around 2.5%, with much of that coming in the Sunday evening gap. The role of weather was clearly seen along the […]
Recession Indicator? Chinese, German, And US Auto Markets Are Rolling Over
Recent data about the Chinese auto market indicates a 7 year high drop in monthly auto sales, indicating much more than seasonal weakness in auto demand. The three-month downturn in auto sales in China is a negative factor for global automakers as well as domestic producers due to their heavy investments in China on the […]
The Big Four Economic Indicators: September Real Retail Sales – Monday, Oct. 15
Note: With the release of September Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index, we’ve updated this commentary to include the latest Real Retail Sales. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close […]
EC The Neglected Tool
Whether or not any central banker chooses to appreciate the fact, money is an important economic tool. Before it ever gets to be a store of value, there has to be some correct supply so as to become a medium of exchange (and almost by virtue a unit of account). The problem throughout history has […]
Asset Allocation For Cautious Investors
In today’s world, where politics take up the majority of news cycles and there is an ongoing war of words between the two major political parties, I decided for this letter to replace our often used phrase “conservative investor” with “cautious investor.” I believe this is a good description for the majority of affluent investors, […]
