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Archives by Year:
American Icon Sears Run Into Ground
Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD), the parent of Kmart and Sears, Roebuck and Co., used to be the leading home appliance retailer in North America and a retail sales leader in tools, lawn and garden, home electronics, and automotive repair and maintenance. It’s been a long-time coming, but what so many predicted has finally come to […]
Friday’s Bounces Ease Back A Little
There was no real surprise to see the gains from Friday come back a little as Thursday’s lows play a siren song. The most likely outcome is a consolidation pennant as prices focus off last week’s lows – this might take a week to play out but the surge in volatility may see some pushback […]
The Winners And Losers Of Q3
The third quarter of the year is in the books. The S&P 500 returned 7.7% for the quarter, its best quarterly performance in nearly five years. The rally was broad-based, according to the Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that divide the S&P 500 into sector index funds. However, performance within the energy sector was mixed. […]
The Truth About The Trump Economy
I keep hearing that although Trump is a scoundrel or worse, at least he’s presiding over a great economy. As White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow recently put it, “The single biggest story this year is an economic boom that is durable and lasting”. Really? Look closely at the living standards of most Americans, and […]
T-Bill/10yr Spread Is A Lesson In Behavioral Finance
“Davidson” submits: I consider the T-Bill/10yr Treas to be a proxy for market psychology. You could call it ‘Behavioral Finance’. There is a lot of talk of ‘market tops’ and pending ‘collapses’. This talk has been with us since this investment cycle began in Spring 2009. It is market psychology based on recent market prices. […]
Bank CDS Watch – Stress Signs?
Here’s an interesting chart from our Global Cross Asset Market Monitor – it’s one of a series of unique and proprietary indicators that we use to help investors stay on top of the key trends, risks, and opportunities across global markets. The chart shows the average 5-year CDS (Credit Default Swap) pricing for the US vs European […]
This Metric Hints Cycle Timing
Consumers appear to be correct with the rate of change of their long run inflation expectations. In the latest survey, one year inflation estimates increased 0.1% to 2.8% and 5 year expectations fell 0.2% to 2.3%. As you can see from the chart below, this matches the cycle low for longer run inflation estimates. Source: Renaissance Macro […]
Gold Extends Gains As Bonds, Stocks, Dollar Slide
China started off hopefully and ended ugly overnight… But Europe managed gains, riding the coat-tails of US pre-market algos… Saudi stocks plummeted to 6-month lows… And while US equities were down overnight, they ramped into the US open and then chopped up and down – generally higher for Dow and S&P and lower for Nasdaq […]
