Archives by Month:

Archives by Year:

Defining Accommodative

Defining Accommodative

Here are two statements from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) immediately following their interest rate decisions of August 1, 2018 and September 26, 2018. August 1, 2018 – In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at […]
September Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.2% MoM

September Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.2% MoM

Today’s release of the September Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand came in at 0.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from last month’s -0.1%. It is at 2.6% year-over-year, down from 2.8% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) also came in at 0.2% MoM, up from -0.1% […]
Worst Performing Stocks This Month

Worst Performing Stocks This Month

The average stock in the S&P 1500 was up 9.24% year-to-date through September, but October has been brutal for stocks thus far. On the surface, the S&P 1500 is only down 1.4% month-to-date, but what lies beneath is much worse. As shown in the chart below, the average stock in the index has fallen 2.75% this month, […]
Warning: We Are Entering The “Late 2007” Stage For The Financial System

Warning: We Are Entering The “Late 2007” Stage For The Financial System

It’s looking more and more like 2007 all over again. Once again, the economy appears to be roaring as it enters the late stages of a major credit expansion. Once again this late stage credit expansion is entering the inflationary blow off top. And once again, “growth” sectors of the markets are flashing that big trouble is […]
Top 5 Charts Of The Week – Wednesday, Oct. 10

Top 5 Charts Of The Week – Wednesday, Oct. 10

This week we look at the following charts and themes: 1. Global leading indicator breadth – a softening in global growth, and wobbles in global equities 2. China and Copper – the bad, the ugly, and the good of slowing growth in China (and what it means for copper) 3. Treasuries futures positioning – traders […]
September 2018 Producer Price Final Demand Year-Over-Year Inflation Continues To Moderate

September 2018 Producer Price Final Demand Year-Over-Year Inflation Continues To Moderate

The Producer Price Index year-over-year inflation declined from 2.8 % to 2.6 %. Analyst Opinion of Producer Prices The Producer Price Index declined year-over-year. Food and energy prices did moderate – but services inflation rose lead by transportation / warehousing. The decline in inflation was as expected. Here is what the BLS said in part: […]
Fastenal Q3 Earnings And Revenues Surpass Estimates

Fastenal Q3 Earnings And Revenues Surpass Estimates

Fastenal (FAST – Free Report) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.69 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.67 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.50 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 2.99%. A quarter ago, it was expected that […]
What Are You Expecting From Gold In Your Portfolio Strategy?

What Are You Expecting From Gold In Your Portfolio Strategy?

Gold is deemed an essential piece of the asset allocation pie in some corners. The reasons vary, depending on the investor, although it’s not uncommon to hear rationales that sound more like religious sermons on the mystical properties of the yellow metal. From an econometric perspective, gold’s attributes for portfolio design are relatively ordinary by […]
Global Fixed Income: Breaking New Ground?

Global Fixed Income: Breaking New Ground?

It was an incredibly volatile week in the bond market on both sides of the Atlantic, as the month of October got underway. The overarching theme at week’s end was higher yields in both the U.S. and the eurozone. Was this renewed move to the upside in rates caused by any groundbreaking developments? And what could this mean going forward? […]
The First Casualty Of Trade War Is Truth

The First Casualty Of Trade War Is Truth

As Trump tariffs continue to spread, an ideological war of words is redressing harsh protectionist realities. What is the state of Chinese growth amid the US tariffs? And what is the impact of the trade wars on global economic prospects? Recently, US academic Yasheng Huang argued on Wall Street Journal that “Jack Ma is retiring. […]