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Another Rate Hike? No Surprises, No Worries

Another Rate Hike? No Surprises, No Worries

Oct 10, 2018 Finance, No picture 0

If you want to make money in bonds, make more money as rates move up and eliminate losses in sell-offs… learn to do nothing. One of the things I try to drill into new bond investors, especially in the increasing rate environment we have now, is that the best strategy in bonds is exactly that: […]
Multiple Jobholders: Over Two Decades Of Trends As Of September

Multiple Jobholders: Over Two Decades Of Trends As Of September

Oct 09, 2018 Finance, No picture 0

What are the long-term trends for multiple jobholders in the US? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has two decades of historical data to enlighten us on that topic, courtesy of Table A-16 in the monthly Current Population Survey of households. At present, multiple jobholders account for just 4.9 percent of civilian employment. The survey captures data for […]
Loss Of Yield Curve “Shock Absorber” Could Mean A Rough Ride Ahead For Markets And Housing

Loss Of Yield Curve “Shock Absorber” Could Mean A Rough Ride Ahead For Markets And Housing

Oct 09, 2018 Finance 0

Two important financial cycles are currently converging for the first time in more than ten years, and how they work in combination can provide key information about the future value of our retirement portfolios, the future prices of our homes, and even when the next recession may hit. A continuing cycle of interest rate increases […]
When The Transportation Sector Breaks Down

When The Transportation Sector Breaks Down

Oct 09, 2018 Finance 0

Take a good look at the photo. You will see a really long line that extends well out-of-sight. We stood on that line from 1 AM until 5 AM along with the rest of the crowd. Maybe it was the hour, but everyone was really chill considering. Why were we on the line?  Because the […]
Homebuilders Hammered Into Bear Market As Mortgage Rates Top 5%

Homebuilders Hammered Into Bear Market As Mortgage Rates Top 5%

Oct 09, 2018 Finance 0

For the first time since Feb 2011, US 30Y mortgage rates have topped 5.0%, according to Mortgage News Daily. As CNBC reports, the average rate on the 30-year fixed loan sat just below 4% a year ago, after dropping below 3.5% in 2016. It just crossed the 5% mark. That is the first time in eight years, […]
Small Businesses Slightly Less Optimistic

Small Businesses Slightly Less Optimistic

Oct 09, 2018 Finance 0

Small business sentiment for the month of September was released earlier this morning, and while the headline index saw a modest decline (108.8 down to 107.9) and came in below consensus forecasts 108.3, the overall level is still extremely optimistic.  One of the more interesting comments in the report was that “The economy is growing faster than […]
Yields Are Soaring: Here’s How To Short Treasury With ETFs

Yields Are Soaring: Here’s How To Short Treasury With ETFs

Oct 09, 2018 Finance 0

Soaring yields once again took all the sheen away from the U.S. Treasury market. This is especially true as 10-year yields jumped to the highest level since 2011 at 3.23% backed by a slew of upbeat economic data. August job data last week showed that the rate of unemployment fell to 3.7% for the first […]
Cold Keeps Winter Natural Gas Bid

Cold Keeps Winter Natural Gas Bid

Oct 09, 2018 Finance 0

It was another very volatile day in the natural gas market, as we saw prices shoot higher overnight on colder model guidance before pulling back through much of the day on profit-taking and impressive supply growth with the November contract settling right around flat.  While the November contract sold off quite a bit on the […]
Economic Bears Throw In The Towel

Economic Bears Throw In The Towel

Oct 09, 2018 Finance 0

Don’t you love it how, now – after the biggest sell-off in fixed income in decades – suddenly everyone is bearish? Long-time readers will know how I am a Kodiak Brown when it comes to fixed-income, but even I can’t bring myself to sell into this hole. I mean, c’mon – do you really think that waiting […]
German Carmakers’ 2018 Earnings Set To Tank

German Carmakers’ 2018 Earnings Set To Tank

Oct 09, 2018 Finance 0

Trade Conflicts & Environmental Regulations Among Factors Driving Stocks and Fixed Income Assets Lower Europe’s automotive industry faces several potential impediments to growth, amid escalating trade disputes, rising commodities costs, geoplitical risks and technological advances. Germany – the Euro Area’s leading market for vehicle production and sales – has seen some of its top producers […]