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Archives by Year:
Six-Month Market Advance Rolling Over
After a six-month advance, it looks like the stock market may be rolling over into an intermediate decline. Downside follow-through next week will confirm. Algo-trading makes up approximately 90% of daily trading activity. Occasionally, when all the stars align, these systems flood the market with sell orders and trigger a 1-3 day flash crash. I […]
GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – Sunday, Oct. 7
GBPUSD remains in the uptrend from 1.2661; the pullback from 1.3298 is likely consolidation for the uptrend. Another rise could be expected after the consolidation and the next target would be at the 1.3500 area. Near term support is at 1.2910, followed by 1.1850, only a break below these levels could signal completion of the […]
E Balancing Of Bonds Against Stocks
It has been said that the economy is one dog with two owners, the government and the central bank. The problem for the dog is which one has the best treats and which one has the leash. In the last 10 years it’s been the FOMC to lean on, now it’s the US President. For […]
Trading Support And Resistance – Sunday, October 7
This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 16 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results: Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the […]
EUR/USD Forecast October 8-12 – Will The Steady Decline Continue?
EUR/USD dropped as the US Dollar returned to dominating the scene amid the ongoing Italian drama. What’s next? The ECB Meeting Minutes stand out. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. The Italian government officially agreed on a budget deficit of 2.4%, above the EU request of 2%. […]
You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet
Taxes announced, proposed, on Chinese imported goods. Or, shoot yourself in the foot edition. Source: Hatzius, et al. “The Trade War: Bigger Numbers, Same Conclusion,” GS 5 Oct 2018. With Vice President Pence’s speech, I’m confident that the Trump administration will push forward in implementing fully the programs of imposing tariffs on China sourced imported goods (while […]
A Look At The Mortgage Market
This week the Dow Jones on Tuesday and Wednesday closed at all-time highs. That makes four new BEV Zeros in the BEV chart below in the past ten trading days, and that’s something I can’t complain about. If you compare the four all-time highs of last January in the daily bar chart below, with the […]
US Home Prices Hit Peak Unaffordability As Prospective Buyers Better Off Renting
With unaffordability reaching levels not seen in decades across some of the most expensive urban markets in the US, a housing-market rout that began in the high-end of markets like New York City and San Francisco is beginning to spread. And as home sales continued to struggle in August, a phenomenon that realtors have blamed on a dearth of […]
Are Bonds Setting A Trap?
The easiest way for U.S. bond markets to entice investors to abandon their obsession with a flattening yield curve—and whether it’ll soon invert—always was to steepen it. The spreads between 5y/10y and two-year yields have widened to 17bp and 30bp, respectively, about 10bp wider than at the end of August. More importantly, this move has […]
Shipping Stock Outlook: Prospects Hurt By Multiple Headwinds
The shipping industry is often considered the lifeline of the global economy. This is because it is responsible for transporting a bulk of the goods involved in world trade. Increased demand for commodities from key emerging markets and Europe is a positive for the industry. However, escalating tensions pertaining to a trade war between the […]
