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Archives by Year:
GBP/USD Forecast October 8-12 – Time For A Soft Brexit?
GBP/USD was rocking and rolling on endless Brexit headlines. What’s next? The GDP report stands out in the new week. Here are the key events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. UK PM Theresa May gave a successful speech at the Tory Conference and shrugged off the potential challenge from Boris Johnson. While she insisted […]
Did Something Just Break?
In last week’s missive I stated: “There has been a pretty well defined upward trendline (gold box) since the April lows which has consistently provided better entry opportunities to increase equity exposure.” “As stated, our existing portfolios are currently fully weighted toward equity risk as there seems to be little which can derail this market currently. We have […]
The Cost Of Having A Taper Tantrum
Remember the Taper Tantrum in 2013? That was when 10 year T-Bond yields rose about 1.3% off a floor of 1.7% and stocks also fell. Over a six-month period the All World Stock Index fell about 9% and 30 year T-Bonds fell 15%. Even a 50/50 stock/bond portfolio of US stocks and Total Bonds fell […]
E Is The USA Too Weak To Let China Succeed?
Donald Trump is right. America is not as great as it once was. He wants to make it great again, but he is going about it the wrong way. America manifests weakness. America may even become weaker. People won’t buy products from a nation they consider a bully. Trump is the face of America. He is perceived as […]
Market Strength Whipsaw
Over the past week my core measures of market strength whipsawed. The category went positive last week, then went back to negative yesterday. Another thing of note is that my core measures of stock market risk fell substantially. This indicates a foundational weakening in market action (as opposed to my market risk indicator which looks […]
Beware: Dollar’s Technical Condition Is Stretched, Look Out For Reversals
The US dollar advanced against most of the major currencies last week, with Brexit hopes on the upswing, helping sterling to be the only major currency to resist the pressure. If players were looking for an excuse to sell dollar the disappointing September jobs growth could have been it, but the bout of buying the rumor […]
3 Retail Stocks To Buy With 2018 Holiday Shopping Sales Set To Jump
Consumer confidence neared an 18-year high last month. Now it looks like the 2018 holiday shopping season is shaping up to be a big one. So, let’s dive into three retailers that seem like strong buys right now that might also get a boost from a rise in holiday season spending. September’s Consumer Confidence […]
E SPX, Interest Rates And Sector Spiders Targets For The Week Of October 8th
This week we’ll dig deeper into the SPX and sector funds and will split the analysis into two parts. Saturday: SPX, interest rates and sector spiders. Sunday/Monday: Oil, Gold and G6 currency pairs. The SPX reached our weekly downside target on Friday and staged a late day rebound. More importantly, however, despite the pull-back it […]
The Big Four Economic Indicators; September Nonfarm Employment
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs […]
The “Mystery” Of America’s Mounting Multiple Jobholders
After a decade of generally positive job market data (even if largely thanks to job growth among lower-wage recipients), one measure has failed to validate this narrative: multiple job holders made up 5.1% of the total employed in August, and that share of the job market has been hovering around 5% since the beginning of the […]
