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Archives by Year:
Should You Expect A US Recession In 2019?
This week two prominent market veterans warned that the US could slip into recession next year. Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital says that the chance is “close to 100%,” while Dennis Gartman puts the probability at 50%. According to Gartman, the cause will be the Fed tightening. Yusko blames trade tariffs as he said, […]
Y-o-Y Employment Is Up An Average Of 136K Per Month, Jobs 211,000 Per Month
Year over year employment is up an average of 136,000 per month. Jobs are up an average of 211,000 a month. Employment, a household survey measure, is more volatile than jobs, an establishment survey measure. The divergence is large even though the trends look alike. Jobs vs. Employment Level The trends are in the […]
Upcoming Earnings To Watch: WBA, DAL, JPM
Brace yourselves, earnings season is coming. But unlike in Game of Thrones, where the ever-present threat of winter is an ominous warning of hard times to come, Q3 report season could be exactly what Wall Street needs in order to buck a handful of headwinds keeping stocks at bay. It might seem somewhat silly to worry […]
US Consumer Credit Hits All Time High As Credit Card Usage Jumps
After a surprising slump in the use of revolving, i.e. credit card, debt when in the months of June and July US consumers “charged” only $639 million during the peak summer months, moments ago, the Fed reported that in August, consumer credit posted a significant rebound, rising by $20 billion, above the $15.0 billion expected, and bringing […]
Dividend Income September 2018
Another month has passed and it is already October, so it is time for one of my favorite monthly posts, the dividend income update September. Well, it was another good month for my dividend income and I again managed it to improve my income compared to the year before. The ninth month of 2018 was […]
Pre-October USDA Crop Report
Market Analysis After above-normal temperatures advanced the maturity of the 2018 corn and soybeans crops this past season, current excessive rains are threatening parts of the western Midwest for the second time this crop year. Early season yields from the ECB have been generally good to excellent for both corn and soybeans, but a more […]
Asia-Pacific Calendar – The Week Ahead
By Steven Levine (Video length 00:02:47) Interactive Brokers senior market analyst Steven Levine provides some highlights for what to look for in the Asia-Pacific region in the week beginning October 8.
August 2018 Headline Consumer Credit Growth Rate Rises A Little
The headlines say consumer credit rate of annual growth improved from last month. We agree but our analysis shows a lower rate of growth. Analyst Opinion of the Consumer Credit Situation Not only does this data set suffer from backward revision (at times moderate to significant enough to change trends), but the use of compounding […]
Preferred Shares Pummeled
One area of fixed income that’s gotten hit especially hard in recent days has been preferred shares. Preferred shares are hybrid securities that are similar to equity (with no obligation to return capital) with fixed income characteristics (a steady stream of coupon payments). They are also generally callable, giving issuers the option to buy them […]
Housing Price Index Signals Pain
Housing Price Index – More Weakness In The Housing Market Coming? The ECRI leading home price index is yet another indicator on the housing market which has gone negative. Higher interest rates are hurting home prices. And, the weakness in housing can easily lead to lower rates as economic growth slows. People’s primary house is […]
