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Archives by Year:
September Jobs Report Weaker Again
This morning’s release of the September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report came in considerably weaker than expected at a level of 134K vs estimates for a gain of 181K. This weaker reading was especially surprising given the fact that most secondary indicators of employment for the month were positive. In this case, though, it must have all […]
Payrolls Miss Big: Just 134K Jobs Added But Revisions Add 87K; Earnings Come As Expected
Ahead of today’s jobs report, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez summarized the worst case scenario as “weak employment but high wage growth.” And moments ago, we got one half of this scenario materializing when the BLS reported that in September only 134K jobs were added, well below the 185K expected (and certainly far lower than the 500K […]
Gold Disappoints In Q3 2018
“Mr. Gold, you have disappointed us! But, really, you dropped almost four percent in the third quarter of this year.” This is what many analysts could say. But we warned our Readers against being bullish in the current macroeconomic environment. We invite you to read our today’s article about the gold market in Q3 2018 […]
Shaken But Not Stirred
Oil bulls were shaken but not too stirred up after the first significant price decline in almost a month. Some said it was a delayed reaction to the big crude oil build in US inventory and others said it was a delayed reaction to secret Russia, US and Saudi Arabian deal to raise oil production. […]
Will Today’s NFP Spook Stock Investors
Today’s non farm payroll release is significant for a number of reasons, particularly if the numbers come in better than expected and validate the Fed’s interest rate path of further increases in 2019. Until yesterday markets had generally ignored the implication of higher interest rates, but with the yield on the 10yr Treasury Note now […]
E Markets: Very Close
We are often told that the world isn’t going to end by human hands but from a rock falling out of the sky, we have come close to proving this story many times. Close doesn’t count except in horseshoes and hand-grenades but it doesn’t help investors. While many see the return of bond vigilantes as […]
Morning Call For Friday, Oct. 5
Overnight Markets And News Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ18 +0.05%) this morning are down slightly by -0.01% ahead of U.S. Sep non-farm payrolls later this morning. European stocks are down -0.38% at a 2-week low as losses in mining stocks lead the overall market lower with the price of copper (HGZ18 -0.16%) down -0.32% at a 2-week low. […]
Dollar Guns For Best Streak Of The Year Ahead Of Make-Or-Break Jobs Report
It would be difficult to overstate how critical Friday’s jobs number is to the prevailing market narrative. This week’s Treasury sell-off has taken 10-year yields to their highest since 2011 and very much unlike the bond weakness that transpired during the week of September 17, this time around the dollar is along for the ride. […]
Growth And Momentum Factors Still Leading For US Stocks In 2018
Yesterday’s sharp sell-off in US stocks delivered haircuts far and wide, but the setback left growth and momentum factors in the lead for year-to-date equity performance, based on a set of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While large-cap value suffered the smallest loss in yesterday’s rout among the major equity factor buckets, this slice of US equities […]
The New NAFTA: Can We Yawn Now?
NAFTA is gone, replaced by largely the same agreement with a different name. Talk about tinkering around the edges. The USMCA—a forgettable acronym—stands for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. But an agreement on what? An agreement to keep NAFTA going with a few tweaks. First, the table stakes. Figure 1 shows each nation’s respective annual trade […]
