October 2018 - Page 242 of 262 -

Italy Dragging Europe Into The Fiscal Spending Party

Oct 03, 2018 Jeremy Parkinson Finance 0

Today’s post will poke a lot of fun at the EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, so I warn you now – if you are a fan, click next. To a large degree, it’s not really sporting going after JC as he offers such a treasure trove of opportunities. We’ll start with his most infamous slip. […]

Japan Economy Shows Signs Of Improvement: ETFs In Focus

Oct 03, 2018 Jeremy Parkinson Finance, No picture 0

Industrial production in Japan was up 0.7% sequentially in August. Though the reading was below economists’ median estimate of 1.5%, it was the first output rise in four months as factories in Japan resumed work after heavy flood and rains. On the release of the data, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication’s (METI) assessment […]

E Fed Abandons R-Star While Trump Caves In

Oct 03, 2018 Jeremy Parkinson Finance, No picture 0

The Federal Reserve and Donald Trump live in strange worlds. We need to examine those worlds. We know that the Fed has abandoned the r* (R-star) and Trump fortunately caved in to Canada. We know that for Donald Trump and his cronies, as the Doors song goes, women seem wicked when they are unwanted. His […]

Clues From The Past: Market Valuation, Inflation, Treasury Yields

Oct 03, 2018 Jeremy Parkinson Finance, No picture 0

Note: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include the latest monthly data. Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a “normal” market environment — one with conventional business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation — […]

The Natural Gas Breakout Continues

Oct 03, 2018 Jeremy Parkinson Finance 0

The November natural gas contract continued its breakout Tuesday, with the contract rallying over 2% again on the day and breaking through a number of upward resistance levels. The rally was strongest at the front of the strip, with the December and January contracts contributing quite a bit but later contracts not quite as strong. […]

Wall Street Bulls To Flourish In Q4: 5 Solid Growth Picks

Oct 02, 2018 Jeremy Parkinson Finance, No picture 0

The Wall Street bull-run, which entered its longest ever expansionary phase on Aug 22, is showing no signs of abatement. Despite trade war concerns, a robust U.S. economy and strong earnings results boosted investors’ confidence in the stock markets. Strong economic fundamentals have once again aided market participants’ appetite for relatively risky assets like equities. […]

They Want To Call It India’s Lehman, It’s Just Dollar Tightening

Oct 02, 2018 Jeremy Parkinson Finance, No picture 0

Eurobonds are not a perfect substitute for dollars, but they may be someone’s only alternative. In some ways, Reflation #3’s weakness can be found originating in this context. The “rising dollar”, or eurodollar squeeze, of 2014-16 was a failure and even run on credit-based dollar funding offshore. If banks won’t deliver dollars, what’s left? Bonds. […]

WTI Holds Gains After Cushing Stocks Build Most Since March

Oct 02, 2018 Jeremy Parkinson Finance 0

WTI held above $75 today but did not extend yesterday’s surge gains ahead of tonight’s API print. After last week’s surprise build, crude was expected to build again and did but it was Cushing that surprised with the biggest rise in stocks since March. “It shows that the market is not convinced about the ability of […]

Post-RBA AUD/USD Weakness To Persist As Bearish Trend Remains Intact

Oct 02, 2018 Jeremy Parkinson Finance, No picture 0

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR TALKING POINTS AUD/USD is under pressure following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting as the central bank keeps the official cash rate (OCR) at the record-low, and the rebound from the 2018-low (0.7085) may continue to unravel as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell strikes a hawkish outlook for monetary policy. POST-RBA AUD/USD WEAKNESS TO PERSIST AS […]

Global Manufacturing PMIs – USA Vs The World

Oct 02, 2018 Jeremy Parkinson Finance 0

The September round of manufacturing PMI data brought some really interesting insights. I’ll be talking through them in more depth later in the week, but I wanted to highlight 2 charts I thought particularly interesting and salient to the key global macro currents… 1. USA vs Global Ex-US Manufacturing PMI: This one shows how stark the divergence […]