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Archives by Year:
Oil Breaks Out To New 52-Week High
The price of crude oil is breaking out today as shown in the chart below. At $74.73/barrel, crude is now at its highest level in nearly four years. While the five-year chart above looks relatively constructive, an even longer-term chart going back to 1990 looks more daunting for oil bulls. For the chart below to […]
USD/CAD: Meet The New NAFTA, Same As The Old NAFTA
At Forex.com, we try to avoid writing about the same currency pair two trading days in a row, but occasionally big new developments make it impossible to avoid. That’s definitely the case when it comes to USD/CAD. On Friday, we highlighted the big rally in oil prices and decent GDP data pushing the loonie higher, but the […]
MKM Says Sell Infinera After Checks Predict Loss Of Top Customer
Shares of Infinera (INFN) are sliding after MKM Partners analyst Michael Genovese downgraded the stock to Sell, saying his checks suggest the company’s loss of its biggest customer amid concerns with its ability to produce leading-edge equipment as the pace needed. SELL INFINERA: This morning, MKM Partners’ Genovese downgraded Infinera to Sell from Neutral and […]
August 2018 Headline Construction Spending Insignificantly Improved
The headlines say construction improved month-over-month but was on the lower end of expectations. The rolling averages declined. Analyst Opinion of Construction Spending The rolling averages declined – and last month was moderately revised downward. Also, note that inflation is grabbing hold. The employment gains currently are generally correlating with construction spending. Econintersect analysis: Growth […]
Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: Trading The USD/CAD Breakdown
The Canadian Dollar is on the offensive with news of a renewed US / Mexico / Canada trade agreement further supporting the Loonie early in the week. Here are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts heading into the start of October trade. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup […]
Odd Man Out
Although this morning is a sea of green, and bulls are high-fiving each other left and right at all the lifetime highs taking place…….. The small caps don’t seem to feel like partying. This is an interesting exception, particularly considering how clean the failure from that symmetric triangle has been. Taking a look at the bigger picture, by way […]
World Trade Growth Expected To Decline From 4.9% To 3.7%
The Personal Income and Outlays report is widely followed because it provides information on the two most important factors in macroeconomics: inflation and consumer spending. Even though it is delayed, the Fed watches this inflation reading the closest, thus making it very important. Month over month August PCE inflation was only up 0.1% which missed […]
The Outsized US Suspicions About Trade: International Comparisons
The US economy, because of its enormous internal domestic market, is actually much less exposed to the effects of international trade than smaller economies around the world. For the world economy as a whole, the ratio of imports/GDP is about 28%, using World Bank data. For the US economy, the ratio of imports/GDP is 15%, about […]
USD/JPY Forecast: October 2018
The US dollar rallied during the bulk of the month of September and even managed to break the ¥113 level. This is a market that has shown a lot of bullish pressure over the last several weeks, and I think it’s only a matter of time before we go looking towards the ¥114.50 level. That’s […]
Markit Manufacturing PMI: Ongoing Confidence In September
The September US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index conducted by Markit came in at 55.6, up 0.9 from the 54.7 final August figure. Markit’s Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Here is an excerpt from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit […]
