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Archives by Year:
E The US Job Market Should Be Overheating. Why Not?
The latest job numbers for September suggest that the American job market is still very strong. Based on the household survey, the unemployment rate fell to 3.7% in September from 3.9% in August, the lowest rate since December 1969 when many working-age Americans were serving in Vietnam. Although the September non-farm sector payrolls were much […]
China Unlikely To Embrace Free Trade With Americans
American manufacturers and farmers victimized by China’s mercantilism and retaliatory tariffs had better settle in for a long trade war. Beijing is not likely to cave quickly to President Donald Trump’s demands. At issue are China’s notorious barriers to competitive foreign products – high tariffs and a maze of administrative obstacles and industrial policies that […]
GDP Prices The Final End Of Hysteria
Jerome Powell may be hawkish, relatively speaking, but his case rests on one data point alone. There is nothing other than the unemployment right now indicating he’s got the right forecast in mind. This wasn’t true just months ago. At the end of 2017 and for a few months in 2018, inflation was moving upward […]
Did The Market Just Find Bottom?
We have been contemplating the nature and shape of this market downturn since the beginning of October. And so far it has played out pretty well along the lines I discussed in the this commentary: Pullback, Correction or Bear Market?. That being that we are still in the midst of a long term bull market, but […]
Australian Dollar Might Get Some Respite If Inflation Holds Up
Fundamental Forecast for AUD:Neutral FUNDAMENTAL AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FORECAST: AUD/USD remains under severe fundamental pressure However, it has so far remained just above its recent, 2018 lows A strong inflation print could keep it there The Australian Dollar continues to languish close to this year’s lows against its US cousin, but, while there’s little scope to […]
Upcoming Tech Earnings To Watch: EBAY, FB, AAPL
Stocks were down across the board on Friday morning, but tech stocks felt the brunt of the selling after sector bellwethers Amazon (AMZN – Free Report) and Alphabet (GOOGL – Free Report) disappointed investors with their latest quarterly earnings reports. It was a busy week for earnings and a volatile week for Wall Street, which struggled to find a […]
Globalization Has Hollowed Out Rural America
What do we make of an economy in which a handful of bubblicious urban areas are magnets for jobs and capital while rural communities have been hollowed out? The short answer is that this progression of urbanization has been one of the core dynamics of civilization for thousands of years: opportunities are greater in cities, and […]
Reasons Behind The Global Financial Crisis
1) Fed and the rest of central banks’ policy seen to be divergent again Fed is walking ahead of anyone else in the world. The BOJ continued its aggressive easing with the introduction of forward guidance. The BOE raised rates, but Mark Carney made clear that it probably needs to wait a long time for […]
E Global Investing: Friday File
Why is gold failing to rise as stocks around the world fall? I think it may be because there are too many alternatives which are more fun than boring heavy metal: cryptocurrencies, cannabis shares, and even oil stocks. They are roller coaster performers, which is exciting and appeals to lazy people hoping to get rich quick. […]
Friday Income Investing
Panic! Panic! Panic! music selection: “Cradle To The Grave” — Five Finger Death Punch I am getting a lot of panicky emails from readers as the market goes through a normal 10% or so correction. Really, you should be prepared for a 10% decline every 6-9 months or so. I have some generalized advice for […]
