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The Three Largest Cryptocurrencies – This Week’s Update
With so much focus on bitcoin lately, we’ve added a new weekly update that tracks the three largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin, Ether, and Ripple. According to Wikipedia, a cryptocurrency is “a digital asset designed to work as a medium of exchange that uses cryptography to secure its transactions, to control the creation of additional […]
E How Government Causes Inflation
We know that inflation is the debasement of money by government. The effects of inflation show up in the form of rising prices over time. The rising prices are a reflection of the loss of purchasing power of the currency involved. For our purposes, that means the U.S. dollar. The chart below depicts increases in the […]
How To Trade A Market In Distribution
We are facing a market in distribution (another way of saying it’s undergoing a correction). Trading in this environment is tricky. While you may be tempted to buy into lower prices, you don’t want to jump on board before the bottom has been made. Because nobody rings a bell and announces, “We’re at the bottom […]
ETF Strategies For The Midterm Elections
Heading into the mid-term election, which is now just two weeks away, political gridlock in Washington persists. This is especially true as chances of an outcome consisting of a Democratic-controlled House and Republican-majority Senate seems likely. Per a Washington Post/Schar School poll, 50% of voters support Democratic candidates and 47% support Republicans. An NBC News/Wall […]
US PMIs Bounce In October As Cost Inflation Hits 5Y Highs
Following Europe’s PMI slump to its weakest since Sept 2016, US Manufacturing and Services PMIs surprised to the upside in the Flash October prints, driving a rebound in the composite index after four straight months lower… Flash U.S. Composite Output Index at 54.8 (53.9 in September). 3-month high. Flash U.S. Services Business Activity Index at 54.7 (53.5 in […]
No Such Thing As An 80% Boom
Many attribute the saying “a rising tide lifts all boats” to President John Kennedy. He may have been the man who brought it into the mainstream but as his former speechwriter, Ted Sorenson long ago admitted, it didn’t originate from his or the President’s imagination. Instead, according to Sorenson, it was a phrase borrowed from […]
The Reason The US Housing Market Is Falling
The hot topic on Wall Street is the weakness in the housing market. The most obvious cause for concern for macro investors stems from the crash in housing stocks. The XHB index which measures the housing market is at a 22 month low. It’s down 22 out of the past 24 trading days and is […]
Nat Gas Cash Bounce Fails
It was another day of significant volatility in the natural gas market, as slightly warmer overnight guidance pushed prices briefly lower before very strong physical prices spiked the front of the futures strip. Warmer risks on early afternoon guidance then sent prices lower, with the November contract settling over a percent lower on the day. […]
A Bear Market Or A Tarantula Market?
This is the point where sticking to investment process matters most. Every fall we get a sort of tarantula migration through Walker, the little community near Prescott, AZ where I live. The header picture for this post is a tarantula that I took on our hike on Sunday. Every fall they come, they are visible […]
Bear Market – 74% Of The Signposts Have Been Triggered
Bear Market – Weak Richmond Fed Survey The Richmond Fed index fell from 29 in September to 14 in October. This missed the consensus for 24 and the lowest estimate which was 16. Weakest component was shipments which fell from 33 to 7. The volume of new orders fell from 34 to 20. There aren’t […]
