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Cheat Sheet
High-level distillation of the drivers of selected currencies. US Dollar Jobs data ahead of the weekend should recover after a storm depressed the September jobs growth. The base effect will allow earnings to show a strong year-over-year gain. The FOMC meets next week. A 25 bp rate hike in December remains the most likely scenario […]
Dow Surges Above Key Technical Level, Now What?
The last two days have seen Dow futures rise over 1100 points, ripping back above their 200DMA… Dow Futs spiked from 24086 to 25145 in the last two days… Send them very technically to their 200DMA… Will it hold?
October 2018 ADP Job Growth Is 227,000
ADP reported non-farm private jobs growth at 227,000 which was above expectations. Analyst Opinion of ADP Employment Situation This month the rate of ADPs private employment year-over-year growth is slightly above the tight range seen over this year. Last month’s employment numbers were revised marginally downward. ADP employment has not been a good predictor of […]
Molson Coors (TAP) Q3 Earnings, Revenues Beat Estimates
Molson Coors Brewing Company (TAP – Free Report) reported solid third-quarter 2018 results, wherein both top and bottom lines surpassed estimates. In fact, this marked the company’s second straight quarter of positive earnings and sales surprises. Results were backed by the company’s First Choice strategy, strong and diverse brand portfolio, and improved performance in Europe and International business […]
Is The Fed Triggering The Next Bear Market?
October has been a rough month for the stock market with the recent downdraft wiping out index gains for the entire year. The deterioration has been rapid despite a strong earnings season and overall S&P earnings increasing by nearly 30 percent. It is highly unusual for earnings and stock prices to diverge to this extent. […]
Some Good News On Workers’ Wages
There was some good news this morning about workers wages. The quarterly employment cost index showed a q/q increase of +0.9% for wages (red in the graph below), and +0.8% for overall compensations (blue) (which includes things like medical benefits). Nominal YoY increases were +3.0% and 2.8%, respectively: Unlike “average hourly earnings” (green in the […]
7 Facts That Reveal The Economic Miracle Of Halloween
There are many reasons to love Halloween. Sure, there are more rules today than ever before. But there’s a reason this holiday, whose roots go back to the Middle Ages, has become one of the most celebrated events in American culture. Halloween offers an opportunity to break bad, celebrate individuality, and express ourselves creatively. So in that spirit, here are seven […]
The Fed’s Mandate To Pick Your Pocket – The Real Price Of Inflation
“Inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon.” – Milton Friedman This oft-cited quote from the renowned American economist Milton Friedman suggests something important about inflation. What he implies is that inflation is a function of money, but what exactly does that mean? To better appreciate this thought, let’s use a simple example of three people stranded […]
Stocks Testing Dual Long-Term Support At The Same Time
This chart looks at the NYSE Index over the past 20-years on a weekly basis. This very broad index has traded sideways for the past 15-months, while the long-term trend remains up. Weakness this month finds the index testing dual long-term support as weekly momentum is creating lower highs as it nearing oversold levels. Support is support until […]
First Back To Back Gains Of The Month?
A number of positive reactions to earnings reports are driving the market higher to close out the month as shares of Facebook (FB) are trading up 5% and General Motors (GM) is up 8%. Strength in foreign markets on the heels of dovish comments from the BoJ and Chinese officials is also contributing to the […]
