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Archives by Year:
Watches And Casinos Point To Global Slowing
The US economy has maintained its robust growth this year but the broader global economy cannot boast the same health. Among many others, indicators like Japanese exports, Swiss exports, and German industrial orders are all either in retreat or decelerating at a significant pace. On top of these more mainstream releases, there are some more obscure indicators that we like […]
Europe Challenged
Europe is in an untenable position. It is being challenged on many fronts. A weaker euro need not result, but it is the path of least resistance. The economy has lost its momentum. What was first written off as a soft patch, now looks a bit more serious. This will be driven home by the flash PMI later […]
USD/CAD Weekly Technical Outlook: Price At Key Resistance, BoC On Tap
In this series, we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. The Canadian Dollar has been under considerable pressure for the past three weeks (USD/CAD higher more-than 2% month-to-date) with price now testing a critical resistance confluence ahead of the Bank of Canada […]
Analyst Says Sell Union Pacific, Genesee & Wyoming On Slowing Demand
In a research note this morning, Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker told investors that it was time to get cautious on freight transportation stocks as he sees downside risk to consensus in 2019 across virtually the entire group driven by slowing demand fundamentals. In conjunction with his change in the sector rating, the analyst downgraded […]
Understanding The CFNAI Components – Monday, Oct. 22
The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, which we reported on this morning, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data: Production and Income Employment, Unemployment, and Hours Personal Consumption and Housing Sales, Orders, and Inventories The complete list is available here in PDF format. In this morning’s Chicago Fed update, we learned that […]
China Builds Infrastructure, US Drops Bombs
Obama bombed 7 countries. Trump is threatening Iran. Meanwhile, China has been building infrastructure. The American Conservative asks Is China Waiting Us Out? The subtitle “While the U.S. bombs, Xi Jinping is building—one power play at a time” provides the answer, but let’s investigate the details. The one constant in recent U.S. foreign policy—regardless of which […]
USDJPY Aiming For Monthly Highs
The new week starts for us with an analysis of the USDJPY pair, where we have a nice bullish setup. That is something new in October as the 10th month of the year has been negative for this instrument so far, having been in freefall for most of the month, until now. It seems that the […]
Extreme Fear – Fed To Hike Rates Until Something Breaks
Extreme Fear Continues The S&P 500 fell 4 basis points. Dow rallied 0.26% because Proctor and Gamble beat earnings estimates. This caused its stock to increase by 8.8%. The Nasdaq fell 0.48% and the Russell 2000 fell 1.2%. Advanced Micro Devices was the biggest loser in the S&P 500 as it fell 11.1%. The best […]
2 Key Rotations Underway In China Property
At the risk of being labeled a reductionist or accused of oversimplifying, my view is with China the key variable is property prices. In fact, if I only had one indicator to look at for China it would be the movement in property prices, simply because they both reflect changes in macroeconomic policy and profoundly […]
