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Trump Teases “Very Major Tax Cut For Middle-Income People” Before Midterms
President Trump told reporters on Saturday that the White House and Congressional leaders are “studying very deeply, round the clock” to roll out a phase II tax cut for middle-class Americans before midterms. “We are looking at putting in a very major tax cut for middle income people. And if we do that it will […]
Miners On The Rise As Promised
Basically everything I’ve predicted is playing out exactly as I said it would, from the semi-crash in stocks (which will recover and go on to new highs), to the recovery in metals. The only call that still remains to play out is whether I will be correct that the dollar began a bear market in […]
Stock Market Crash Deja Vu? Keep An Eye On This Pattern
Just over 3 weeks ago, I shared a chart looking at the divergence that has been brewing under the surface of the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY). Since that post, the S&P 500 finds itself in a deep pullback, with other key stock market indices hitting correction territory at their lows. Today we provide another look at the divergence and highlight why […]
Trading Support And Resistance – Sunday, Oct. 21
This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 16 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results: Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the […]
What Can Bite You This Week?
Several major central banks will meet next week, including the European Central Bank, but it is only the Bank of Canada that is expected to hike rates. The flash PMIs and the first official estimate of Q3 US GDP are among the data highlights. Beyond the events and data, the volatility from global equity markets from Shanghai to […]
Systemic Risk Lurking In The U.S. Housing Market?
The U.S. Homebuilders ETF (XHB) is in bear market territory…down 24.68% from its peak on January 24 of this year. On a year-to-date percentages gained/lost basis, it has drastically underperformed the nine U.S. Major Sectors, as shown on the graph below. Year-to-date % Gained/Lost graph of 9 U.S. Major Sectors + Homebuilders As shown on the first monthly chart, the XHB is nearing a long-term 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 32.23, […]
British Shale Revolution Crushed: America’s Unique Ownership Of Oil And Gas
A Cuadrilla is the matador’s supporting cast. Before the bullfighter takes on his next victim, the bull is tormented and weakened by a gang (a “Cuadrilla”) of toreadors and picadors. Of course, the bull always loses, because it’s a spectacle not a sport. Cuadrilla is therefore an oddly antagonistic name for a UK company using […]
Weighing The Week Ahead: Major Market Misperceptions
We have a light economic calendar with a focus on housing. Earnings season would normally be the most important market theme. For now, observers are seeing what they want to see in earnings reports. That makes it easier for pundits to take up a favorite topic: What is about to go wrong? There are so […]
Market Shoots Arrows And Throws Daggers
The market has 5 heads and 8 arms. It stands victoriously on 2 legs atop its victim. It could be because the victor has more arms and heads than its victim. The market has a similar picture. The bulls put up a good fight. However, the bears have more arms and heads. Their daggers are […]
Commitment Of Traders This Week: The Future Of Futures
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 16, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 616k, down 6.5k. Three weeks ago, non-commercials were net short 756,316 contracts in 10-year Treasury note futures – a record. They have since reduced their holdings by north of 140,000 contracts. This did have an impact on the 10-year rate […]
