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The Short-Term Trend Ahead

The Short-Term Trend Ahead

I doubt we’ll get much of a short-term rally until after the midterms, and then I expect some market strength through to the end of the year. The only problem with this view? Everybody else thinks the same thing. Here is a terrific quote from today’s column by Mike Burk. Last week began with a sharp […]
The “World’s Most Bearish Hedge Fund” Reveals How It Will Trade The Next Crash

The “World’s Most Bearish Hedge Fund” Reveals How It Will Trade The Next Crash

After a painful stretch of five consecutive down months, September couldn’t come fast enough for Horseman Global, which we previously dubbed “the world’s most bearish hedge fund”, due to its exposure which, while fluctuating, has been net short for the past 6 years and most recently had a net short position of -47.33%, even more […]
Stock Market Outlook For The Rest Of 2018

Stock Market Outlook For The Rest Of 2018

Last week we talked about whether this current market downpour was a pullback, correction or start of a bear market. And whether we were already seeing the end of the pain before a lasting bounce takes place. Yet discussions like these are often missing the main point. That’s because in the short run, the market has […]
Forex Weekly Outlook October 22-26 – US GDP Slowdown And The Draghi Show

Forex Weekly Outlook October 22-26 – US GDP Slowdown And The Draghi Show

Currencies wobbled in a week that saw a failed EU Summit on Brexit and mixed economic data from the US. What’s next? A first look at Q3 GDP in the US, and rate hikes from the ECB and the BOC stand out. Here the highlights for the next week. US retail sales disappointed with an […]
Tracking Trump’s Tariffs: US Vs. Canadian Rail Loads

Tracking Trump’s Tariffs: US Vs. Canadian Rail Loads

Let me start out by saying that there is an excellent case for the US imposing a VAT (“value added tax”) similar to those enacted by Canada and European countries in order to recapture the losses due to far lower wages in China and other developing countries. Additionally there is an excellent national security rationale […]
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update – Saturday, Oct. 20

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update – Saturday, Oct. 20

Friday morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 147.4, down from the previous week’s 148.5. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 2.17%, down from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 0.12, also down from the previous week. “Outsized […]
The Retirement Challenge Facing High Salaried Workers

The Retirement Challenge Facing High Salaried Workers

I want to share with you a scenario that I’ve encountered several times when doing retirement planning for high salaried individuals, especially legal and medical professionals. All too often I see these clients not begin saving for retirement early enough and not putting enough away when larger paychecks start rolling in. How Saving for Retirement […]
USDCAD Weekly Analysis – Saturday, Oct.20

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – Saturday, Oct.20

USDCAD is facing the resistance of the falling trend line on the daily chart. As long as the trend line resistance holds, the bounce from 1.2782 could be treated as consolidation for the downtrend, and another fall towards 1.2650 is still possible. On the upside, a breakout of the trend line resistance would indicate that […]
Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 22 And 29

Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 22 And 29

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.         Forecast Prior Observation Consensus   Week of October 22         October 22         Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.18 0.18 0.18             October 23         Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index […]
SPX Bounces Off Its Trendline

SPX Bounces Off Its Trendline

VIX pulled back from its highest level since February, closing above its Cycle Top at 19.67 while showing a loss for the week. The Cycles Model shows another likely surge in strength for the VIX through the next week. (FoxNews)  U.S. stocks are off to another volatile day of trading Wednesday, with the Dow giving […]