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                        S&P 500 Index In A Range In Long Term Uptrend

E S&P 500 Index In A Range In Long Term Uptrend

Starting with the daily chart, the S&P 500 index is currently on a downswing in a downtrend. The last upswing was larger than prior upswing so I am expecting the index to rise above the 2817 level, if it can stay above the moving average line (2751). The weekly chart shows this year as a […]
Alibaba Generated $10b Of GMV In First Hour Of Global Shopping Festival

Alibaba Generated $10b Of GMV In First Hour Of Global Shopping Festival

Early highlights of Alibaba’s 2018 Nov. 11 Global Shopping Festival include: $10B of total GMV settled through Alipay in 1 hour and 48 seconds; $1B of total GMV settled through Alipay in the first 1 minute and 25 seconds; and participation from more than 180,000 brands. The Nov. 11 shopping festival began in 2009 with […]
FX Week Ahead: Q3’18 Japanese GDP, October UK & US CPI, Aussie Jobs

FX Week Ahead: Q3’18 Japanese GDP, October UK & US CPI, Aussie Jobs

Talking Points: The middle of the month promises continued attention on politics, but mainly outside of the US, the Brexit negotiations and the Italian debt saga. Q4’18 US growth expectations are starting to take shape, and the October US CPI and retail sales reports this week will offer insight. Retail traders remain mostly net-short the US […]
Forex Forecast And Cryptocurrencies Forecast For November 12-16

Forex Forecast And Cryptocurrencies Forecast For November 12-16

First, a review of last week’s events: EUR/USD  Recall that, when giving the last week’s forecast, 60% of experts had expected the euro to grow to the zone 1.1480-1.1525, and turned out to be 100% right: by Wednesday November 7, the pair had risen to the height of 1.1500. The remaining 40% of analysts had suggested […]
AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – Sunday, Nov. 11

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – Sunday, Nov. 11

AUDUSD broke above the bearish trend line on the daily chart, suggesting that the downside movement from 0.8135 had completed at 0.7020 already. A further rally would likely be seen after a minor consolidation and next target would be at 0.7400 area. Near term support is at 0.7180 and only a breakdown below this level […]
Why The Stock Market Will Pull Back, Rally And Roll Into A Bear Market

Why The Stock Market Will Pull Back, Rally And Roll Into A Bear Market

The S&P 500 has made a 61.8% retracement and is now stalling. This is completely normal. Most 10%+ corrections have a 61.8% retracement and then a pullback or retest of the lows before heading higher. The economy’s fundamentals determine the stock market’s medium-long term outlook. Technicals determine the stock market’s short-medium term outlook. Here’s why: The […]
Weekly Economic And Political Timeline – Sunday, Nov. 11

Weekly Economic And Political Timeline – Sunday, Nov. 11

This week is likely to see a little less activity compared to last week, with no real central bank input due for any major currencies. The most important data releases concern the U.S. Dollar and the British Pound. The market is likely to be most active on Wednesday and Thursday. Monday is a public holiday in the U.S.A. […]
Dow Jones’ Earnings Are At Record Highs

Dow Jones’ Earnings Are At Record Highs

The Dow Jones saw some action this week. Wednesday, the day after the mid-term elections it advanced by 2.13% from its previous day’s closing price, our fourth day of extreme volatility since early October. Everyone was happy about the nice daily gain. But I’m only noting that days of extreme market volatility (Dow Jones 2% […]
Consumer Sentiment Is Key To Gold Advance

Consumer Sentiment Is Key To Gold Advance

I’m going to start by revisiting the University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers. There’s a lot to digest in the first chart, but if you study it, I think you’ll see the powerful inverse correlation with gold. Next week should be interesting. Monday and Tuesday will set the tone for the week. I’ll post multiple […]
Weekly Fundamental Forecast: As Political And Rate Decision Risks Ebb, Will Sentiment And Trade Wars Take Over?

Weekly Fundamental Forecast: As Political And Rate Decision Risks Ebb, Will Sentiment And Trade Wars Take Over?

The US mid-term elections and FOMC rate decision from this past week were noteworthy distractions for the markets, but they were not ultimately true course settings for the markets. The docket thins out next week, but open-ended themes from trade wars to Brexit to Italy’s budget can wrest back focus. Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Can […]