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Archives by Year:
E US Posts 3.5% Annual Growth In Third Quarter; Tariffs Distort Macro Statistics
The US economy is expected to slow in 2019 and 2020, even though growth was particularly strong in Q2 and Q3 of 2018. Moreover, there is little doubt that the Trump’s increasing trade war with China, and his tariffs on steel and aluminum, have started to affect the macro statistics. Based on advanced estimates, America’s […]
Book Review: Furr Et Al., Leading Transformation
Companies frequently have to reinvent themselves, a task that tends to be neglected because of comfort with the familiar and fear of the unknown and because management simply doesn’t know how to go about envisaging a different trajectory for the company, let alone implementing it. Nathan Furr, Kyle Nel, and Thomas Zoëga Ramsøy pooled their […]
Valuing MLPs Privately – Enterprise Products Partners
MLP valuations show that the trust of the traditional MLP investor has been lost, perhaps irretrievably. In Kinder Morgan; Still Paying for Broken Promises, we showed how that company’s history of investor abuse via two distribution cuts and an adverse tax outcome continues to weigh on its stock price. In Magellan Midstream: Keeping Promises But Still Dragged […]
Weighing The Week Ahead: Market Storm Averted?
We have another normal economic calendar. The election is behind us. The Fed decision is behind us. What next? Some of the punditry convened after Wednesday’s rally to say that it was time to get “back to reality.” Others are wondering about a year-end rally. Since everyone keys off what happened the day before (!!) […]
Global Smartphone Recession Confirms Consumer Downturn
Q3 smartphone sales data show the global market in recession, as Strategy Analytics confirmed: “The global smartphone market has now declined for four consecutive quarters and is effectively in a recession.” The warning signs began in Q1, when the market plateaued for the first time, as discussed here in May: “The global smartphone market has finally […]
E Market Briefing For Monday, Nov. 12
Risks are more than murky for stocks in the wake of a big post-Election ‘relief’ (that it was over at least) rally. Yes there’s lots of speculating about of course the Fed, and whether we’ve reached ‘peak profits’ or ‘peak earnings’ and of course how a ‘trade relationship’ with China plays into all this. Well, […]
Maui Land & Pineapple (MLP) Investment Thesis – Papyrus Capital
I’ll preface this by saying I’ve never really invested in land banks (except a small CTO position for a short time) after seeing the JOE back and forth between Einhorn and Berkowitz earlier in my career – to me, they are usually uninvestable value traps never monetized. However, Maui Land & Pineapple (MLP) is an […]
EURUSD Downside Pressure Builds Up Towards 1.3000 Zone
EURUSD downside pressure builds up towards the 1.3000 zone. This is coming on the back of its past week price weakness. Support lies at the 1.1300 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1250 level. A break below here will aim at the 1.1200 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.1150. On the […]
Futures In The Future, Commitment Of Traders, What Hedge Funds Are Buying This Week
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 539.2k, up 36.3k. In January, the 10-year Treasury rate broke out of 2.62 percent. Then in September, it took out 2.95 percent, followed by a break out of 3.11 percent early October. Things could not evolve any better for bond […]
Amazon, And America’s Real Divide
While America was fixated on the most tumultuous midterm election in modern history, Amazon (AMZN) reportedly decided that its much-vaunted “second headquarters” would be split between Long Island City in Queens, and Crystal City, across the Potomac from Washington, D.C. What does Amazon’s decision have to do with America’s political tumult? Turns out, quite a […]
