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Archives by Year:
1 In 54 Chance Of U.S. Recession Starting Before November 2019
The U.S. Federal Reserve boldly took no action to increase short term interest rates in the U.S. at the conclusion of its November 7-8 2018 meeting, leaving them at their current target rate of 2.00% to 2.25%, the level to which they had set them back in September 2018. As it did nothing, the risk that the U.S. […]
US Dollar Rebound May Continue On CPI, European Politics
US DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BULLISH US midterm elections outcome, FOMC rate decision drive Dollar upward Upbeat inflation data may boost Fed rate hike bets, adding to USD gains Sluggish Brexit talks, jitters in Italy and Sweden may stoke haven demand US midterm elections delivered as expected last week, producing a divided Congress as the Democrats reclaimed control of the House of […]
Quantitative Tightening Moves Full Speed Ahead
As quantitative tightening moves to full speed, I thought it would be a good idea to update some of the charts from the popular “7 Charts on Quantitative Tightening” article. The commencement of quantitative tightening (or, officially, balance sheet normalization), marked an important milestone in the history of the grand monetary policy experiment that kicked […]
EUR/USD Forecast November 12-16 – The Recovery Ended Before It Started
EUR/USD went higher but struggled to hold onto the gains as the dust settled from the US mid-term elections. What’s next? GDP numbers and other figures stand out. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. The US mid-term elections resulted in a split Congress, as expected. The […]
Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of November 12 And 19
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of November 12 November 13 NFIB 108.0 107.9 108.0 Treasury Budget – October -$122.0B 119.9 -111.8 November 14 […]
World Market Headwinds Escalate On A Shift Away From Harmonic Globalism
In my Market Forecast for 2018, I thought that, taking into consideration the uncertainty of the 2018 U.S. midterm elections, coupled with likely interest rate hikes, we’d probably see: volatility rise in 2018 and the SPX and other U.S. Major Indices gain only about half of what they gained in 2017, which would mean an approximate increase of 10% for […]
Did You Think The Selling Was Over?
Stocks took a hit on Friday, but in this crucial weekend video newsletter we want to look at the type of stocks taking a hit. Investors are pulling funds out of the wealth effect stocks and into more safe and recession-proof stocks. Watch this video to find out about the trading opportunities ahead.
Rally Fails As Gridlock Weighs On Outlook
Last weekend I discussed the fact we had started using the rally to lift some exposure out of portfolios ahead of the mid-term elections simply as a hedge for the “unknown.” Well, on Tuesday, the ballots were cast and while the Republicans were able to hold onto the Senate, they lost the House. As I wrote […]
Origins And Challenges Of A Strong Dollar
That’s the title of an op-ed appearing in Nikkei newspaper (日本経済新聞): Chinn, as translated, in The Nihon Keizai Shinbun. Over the past four years, the US dollar has exhibited noticeable strength. The dollar appreciated 17% in inflation adjusted terms from mid-2014 to the eve of the election; upon the election of Donald J. Trump, the dollar […]
