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Soybeans Pile Up, So Do Worries Of Bean Rot

Soybeans Pile Up, So Do Worries Of Bean Rot

There was a record soybean crop this year just as China stopped buying. The beans are piling up. So are fears of rot. The New York Times reports Farmers Hope Trade War Ends Before Beans Rot. Kevin Karel, the general manager of the Arthur Companies, which has long sold soybeans to China. With that market now […]
Bizzare Plunge In Direct Demand Continues In Today’s 3Y Treasury Auction

Bizzare Plunge In Direct Demand Continues In Today’s 3Y Treasury Auction

Two weeks ago we observed a series of Treasury auctions, specifically the 2Y, 5Y, and 7Y issues in late October, which were generally in line with historical average except for a perplexing collapse in Direct Bidders. Today, this Direct bidder “boycott” continued, when moments ago the Treasury sold $37 billion in an upsized 3Y auction […]
ISM Non-Manufacturing: Slower Growth In October

ISM Non-Manufacturing: Slower Growth In October

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the October Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), also known as the ISM Services PMI. The headline Composite Index is at 60.3 percent, down 1.3 from 61.6 last month. Today’s number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 59.3 percent. Here is the report summary: “The NMI® registered 60.3 percent, […]
Talking Turkey

Talking Turkey

Turkey’s economic challenges arise from the imbalances created during the economic boom that saw poverty halved between 2002 and 2011, extensive urbanization, and integration in the world economy through trade and capital flows. The dramatic economic changes saw the rise of Erdogan, who was re-elected as President for a second term in June. His party (AKP) […]
Gold Market Update – Monday, Nov. 5

Gold Market Update – Monday, Nov. 5

The Precious Metals sector continues to be viewed with disdain and skepticism by the vast majority of investors, which is exactly what you want and expect to see at the earliest stages of a major bull market. However, the charts continue to shape up well, as we will now see. Starting with the long-term 10-year […]
Big China Change(s): We Are All Losers In The End

Big China Change(s): We Are All Losers In The End

Since December 2015, China’s powerful politburo has met nine times to discuss the economy. The Political Bureau of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee is a group of 25 top officials who control pretty much everything. The politburo’s smaller Standing Committee is the very top echelon of the Communist Party. Members of the politburo are […]
Ford Truck Sales Slowing

Ford Truck Sales Slowing

Many economic data points have been tapping the brakes recently indicating slower economic activity. One data point that we like to look at is Ford truck sales. Trucks are typically purchased by small businesses and contractors, so they provide a good read on the health of the small business sector. Based on these sales totals […]
October Washout Serves Up Compelling Buying Opportunity At Lower Forward Valuations

October Washout Serves Up Compelling Buying Opportunity At Lower Forward Valuations

The escalating trade standoff with China, an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve, and the impending mid-term elections finally took a toll on investor psyche, creating a rush to the exits in October as concern rises about the sustainability of the ultra-strong corporate earnings given China’s key role in global supply chains. Even some sell-side analysts have seen fit […]
October 2018 Conference Board Employment Index Improved But Rate Of Growth Slowed

October 2018 Conference Board Employment Index Improved But Rate Of Growth Slowed

The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index – which forecasts employment for the next 6 months improved with the author’s saying “After last month’s decline, The Employment Trends Index bounced back and is signaling solid employment growth through the winter“. Analyst Opinion of Conference Board’s Employment Index Econintersect evaluates year-over-year change of this index (which is different […]
Fed Rate Hikes – 3 More Expected By December 2019

Fed Rate Hikes – 3 More Expected By December 2019

Fed Rate Hikes – Mixed Action On Friday Before delving into Fed rate hikes, let’s review Friday’s market action. With all the volatility in the past few weeks, it appears investors aren’t focused on the midterm elections. At worst, I think the election won’t affect stocks. At best, it will inspire a big rally. Stocks […]