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Archives by Year:
Week In Review: Stocks Bounce Back From Deeply Oversold Levels
The market bounced last week from deeply oversold levels and investors digested a slew of earnings and some economic data. For the past two weeks, I have repeatedly said the market is oversold and due to bounce. I did not know the market would bounce as much as it did but that is what […]
Market Stalls At Resistance (Selling The Rally)
This past Tuesday, I wrote “A Sellable Rally” in which I laid out the 4-reasons for a rally based on the psychological, fundamental, technical, and seasonal underpinnings. That rally came to fruition over the last few days. For us, it has been the technical backdrop which remains the most compelling. To wit: “Unlike the February lows, the […]
No, The Government Didn’t Cause Unemployment
There was a big blogosphere kerfuffle in the last few weeks between some Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) people and a bunch of economics and finance people I greatly respect (Simon Wren-Lewis, Jo Michell, Steve Keen, Frances Coppola, etc). MMT was, at times, pushing an extremist and combative narrative that I found deeply misleading so I wanted to […]
SPX Kiss Of Death
VIX probed slightly higher than the previous week on Monday, but couldn’t hold its altitude, closing beneath its weekly Cycle Top at 20.21. The Cycles Model weakness discussed last week came into play through Friday. However, this weekend is an important Cycle Pivot that may allow the rally to resume through the end of […]
Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of November 5 And 12
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of November 5 November 5 PMI Services Index 54.7 54.7 54.7 ISM Services – October 59.7 61.6 59.4 ISM Prices […]
Uneven Dollar Correction May Continue
The US dollar turned in a mixed performance last week. Favorable economic data and a recovery in equities helped the Antipodean currencies advance the most. The New Zealand dollar rallied nearly 2%, and the Australian dollar gained 1.5% on the week. Their central banks meet next week, but there is little chance of a change […]
S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 2.4% From Last Friday
The S&P 500 bounced back a bit since last week after a near correction. The index dropped on Monday but came back Tuesday, hovering around a 60 point margin for the rest of the week. It is down 0.63% from Thursday, but up 2.42% from last Friday. It is up a mere 1% YTD. The […]
Review Of Q3 2018 GDP Report: Business Investment Growth Is Slowing
Before we review the preliminary Q3 GDP growth report, it’s important to recognize America’s relative outperformance in the rate of change terms over the global economy. 2018 has been a fantastic year of the rate of change outperformance for America as growth accelerated partially due to the fiscal stimulus while growth slowed in the rest […]
