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The S&P 500 In The Week When Apple’s Future Dimmed

The S&P 500 In The Week When Apple’s Future Dimmed

“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.” Those are the immortal words of statistician George E.P. Box, which underlie every bit of serious analysis that seeks to approximate real world processes and outcomes with math. Including our own. What keeps models useful is to recognize when and how they’re wrong. For example, many years ago, […]
WTI Crude Oil And Natural Gas Forecast – Monday, Nov. 26

WTI Crude Oil And Natural Gas Forecast – Monday, Nov. 26

WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market broke down significantly again during the trading session on Friday, reaching towards the $50 level. This is a market that looks terrific, and it seems as if the bloodshed will never end. However, the $50 level underneath offers a significant amount of psychological support as well as […]
Why Facebook Remains A ‘Strong Buy’

Why Facebook Remains A ‘Strong Buy’

INVESTMENT HACKS It seems a week can’t go by without Mark Zuckerberg putting his foot in his mouth. In response to last week’s article from the New York Times, which alleged that Facebook had hired a high-power DC PR firm to manage the fallout from accusations that Russia manipulated the platform to interfere with the […]
Oil Rises, Brent Rises Again Above 60 Dollar A Barrel

Oil Rises, Brent Rises Again Above 60 Dollar A Barrel

Crude oil prices traded in the Green Zone on Monday, offsetting some of the losses suffered during last week’s sell-offs due to fears of oversupply. After falling to a one-year low on Friday. Crude oil  rebounded on Monday in Asia after falling 8% on Friday amid fears of weak demand pressures that could create plenty next year. […]
Timing Is Everything

Timing Is Everything

Remember back in May when I shared this post? Everyone was calling me crazy. “Are you stupid? You can’t bet against Amazon” At the time, Amazon was just going from strength to strength and taking out rivals left, right and centre. There was also some really nasty divergence on the long-term charts. So, I took a […]
AUD/USD Weekly Analysis – Monday, Nov. 26

AUD/USD Weekly Analysis – Monday, Nov. 26

AUD/USD moved sideways in a trading range between 0.7201 and 0.7277. As long as 0.7277 resistance holds, the sideways movement could be treated as consolidation for the downtrend from 0.7337 and a breakdown below 0.7201 support could trigger further downside movement towards 0.7100. On the upside, a break of 0.7277 resistance would indicate that the […]
XOI.X Cycle Model Chart – Monday, Nov. 26

XOI.X Cycle Model Chart – Monday, Nov. 26

2018.11.25 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart The model continues to converge, but there is a continuing right phase shift and a wide discrepancy between actual and predicted suggesting lower prices are much less probable. Note also the change in the right axis descriptors, as the maximum has decreased from 2800 to just under 2200.  A previous […]
10-Yr Treasury Yield

10-Yr Treasury Yield

10-year note yield falling below the uptrend and psychological line of around 3% will lead to increasing note technical buying. Time will show if lower rates will start supporting the stock market or if the stock market’s weakness is the trigger behind the increased attractiveness of US government bonds (and respective drop of their yields). […]
Likely No Framework To Be Reached In G20 Meeting

Likely No Framework To Be Reached In G20 Meeting

Market stays cautious ahead of G20 meeting, short AUD/USD?  GBP in pressure again as there is no better deal.  Theresa May staked her authority on a campaign to persuade Parliament against the odds to endorse her Brexit deal as she refused to rule out quitting as UK Prime Minister if she fails.  After agreeing on the […]
Pulte Homes: Staying Confident Despite Challenging Operating Conditions

Pulte Homes: Staying Confident Despite Challenging Operating Conditions

Pulte Homes (PHM) reported Q3 2018 earnings on October 23rd. The stock responded favorably with a 7.3% one-day gain. That same day, the S&P 500 (SPY) gapped down and sold off for four more trading days. The index now sits at a near 7-month low while PHM is holding an impressive 24.1% total post-earnings gain. This relative out-performance is […]