Archives by Month:

Archives by Year:

Silver Bottoming Almost Complete

Silver Bottoming Almost Complete

The current silver bottoming process is very similar to that of 2001 to 2003. It took a while for silver to establish a base which set up the bull rally in the following years to 2011. The current bottoming has been longer, but it fits the profile of the early 2000 bottom in many respects. […]
Junk Bond Bubble In Six Images

Junk Bond Bubble In Six Images

The junk bond to BBB-rated bond spread and the spread between AAA to BBB bonds shows amazing complacency. It won’t last. Fallen Angels BBB-rated bonds are just one notch above junk (also called high-yield). Fallen angels are bonds that slip from BBB to junk. The lead chart shows what happens to “fallen angels” during recessions. […]
ISM Manufacturing Index: Expansion In October

ISM Manufacturing Index: Expansion In October

Today the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for October. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 57.7 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percent from 59.8 the previous month. Today’s headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 59.0 percent. Here is the key analysis from the report: “The October PMI® registered 57.7 percent, a decrease […]
October Employment Report Preview

October Employment Report Preview

Heading into Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for October, economists are expecting an increase in payrolls of 200K, which would be a big increase from September’s report which came in significantly below expectations at 134K. In the private sector, economists are expecting an increase of 195K, which would imply a similar improvement versus September as […]
The Gold Cycle

The Gold Cycle

A review of the Gold market and the US Dollar. Video Length: 00:07:29
Gold Prices Risk Larger Advance As Bearish Sequence Snaps

Gold Prices Risk Larger Advance As Bearish Sequence Snaps

The pullback from the October-high ($1243) unravels, with the recent weakness in gold accompanied by a decline in market participation, and the latest price action raises the risk for a larger advance as bullion snaps the series of lower highs & lows carried over from the previous week. GOLD PRICES RISK LARGER ADVANCE AS BEARISH SEQUENCE SNAPS […]
USD/CHF: False Break To 17-Month Highs Or A Mere Hesitation?

USD/CHF: False Break To 17-Month Highs Or A Mere Hesitation?

As you might expect from the undeniably “risk-off” tone throughout the month of October, the “safe haven” Japanese yen was last month’s best-performing major currency. The big surprise, however, came from a different safe haven currency; the Swiss franc was the weakest major on the month, edging out the euro. Perhaps SNB President Jordan’s statement […]
Why Tax Cuts Without Spending Cuts Won’t Bring Economic Growth

Why Tax Cuts Without Spending Cuts Won’t Bring Economic Growth

On Monday, October 15, 2018, the US Treasury Department released figures showing that the federal budget deficit had widened by 17% in the 2018 fiscal year, to $779 billion. Most experts see this widening in the deficit as the result of the tax cuts, which went into effect in January this year. Note that the […]
Most Active Equity Options And Strikes For Midday – Thursday, Nov. 1

Most Active Equity Options And Strikes For Midday – Thursday, Nov. 1

Top tickers for midday: YELP, ZNGA, FB, AMD, BAC, GE, ETM.
September 2018 Headline Construction Spending Unchanged

September 2018 Headline Construction Spending Unchanged

The headlines say construction was unchanged month-over-month but was on the lower end of expectations. The rolling averages improved. Analyst Opinion of Construction Spending The rolling averages improved – and last month was moderately revised upward. Also, note that inflation is grabbing hold. The employment gains currently are generally correlating with construction spending. Econintersect analysis: Growth […]