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Archives by Year:
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Up 0.1% In October, New High
Note: This commentary has been updated to incorporate the October data for Industrial Production. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, […]
E The Perfect Storm Hits The Canadian Oil Sector
As with all storms it usually is building up slowly, but when it hits it can be quite devastating. Yesterday, Canadian oil prices hit a record low of $13.27 bbl as the full brunt of the storm hit western Canada. The price of Canadian Western Select dipped below that experienced during the 2008 financial crisis […]
Brexit Breakthrough Followed By Threat Of Breakdown
On November 13, British Prime Minister Theresa May and her Brexit negotiating team reached agreement with the European Union (EU) negotiators on a draft withdrawal treaty. The next day, after a very difficult five-hour meeting, May secured the agreement of her cabinet. Following the cabinet meeting, she told reporters “The choice before us is clear: […]
Weekend Reading: Why This Isn’t “The” Bear Market…Yet
After two significant corrections during 2018, this has to be the beginning of a “bear market,” right? It certainly is possible given the headwinds that are starting to weigh on corporate outlooks such as ongoing trade wars, weaker revenue growth, a strong dollar, and higher interest rates. However, despite these concerns, there are three things which suggest the […]
S&P Creating Parallels To 2000 & 2007, Says Joe Friday!
Trouble started for the S&P 500 in 2000 when momentum diverged for months, it broke below multi-month trading range support, 200-day moving average, and multi-year rising support at (1). Trouble started for the S&P 500 in 2007 when momentum diverged for months, it broke below multi-month trading range support, 200-day moving average, and multi-year rising support at (1). Joe Friday Just […]
The Week In Charts: How Stocks In A Bear Market Are Like Rats Leaving A Ship
(Video length 01:32:19) In this episode, I continued my discussion on how shorter-term sell signals have already triggered and that we are getting closer to much longer-term sell signals. I went on to discuss what happens to stocks in a bear market and how eventually, the falling tide sinks all ships. And last, but certainly […]
Girl’s Best Friend
I’ve been pretty obsessed with the “diamond” pattern in the semiconductor index for many, many weeks. The NVDA news yesterday afternoon kind of clinches the whole thing. Semis will be an important driver today. The market has been terribly whippy lately, but at least for the moment we seem to be approaching the day […]
What Positive Reversal?
Well, it was good while it lasted. After yesterday’s 2%+ rally off the early morning lows, some may have been starting to think that the market was taking a step in the right direction. Then, the after-hours came. With earnings tape bombs from Applied Materials (AMAT), Nordstrom (JWN), and Nvidia (NVDA), bulls are back in full […]
We Won’t Get Fooled Again
Oil was crashing on the street, after a Presidential tweet, and the sanctions on Iranian oil now will be gone. And the man who spurred it on sit, in judgement of all wrong, he decides and the Saudis sing a song that they’ve been wronged. I will tip my hat to the green substitutions. Take a […]
The Good Times For The Markets Are Over… The Bad Times Are About To Hit
Global growth is officially dead. The markets picked up on this first, with Copper, Lumber, Industrial Metals and other economically sensitive asset classes collapsing starting in May. Looking at those charts, it was easy to single out the Fed as the culprit, since the Fed’s hawkishness had ignited the $USD which in turn put pressure […]
