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Archives by Year:
Bearish Setups – Just In Case
Ugly price action across the board today. SPX is 38 points off the highs, as of this post, and continues to put in lower-lows and lower-highs on the intraday charts. I have yet to add any short positions to the portfolio, but that very well could change tomorrow, should the weakness continue. Below I’ve put […]
The Market Crash Is Underway And Cannot Be Stopped?
There was an intriguing headline on Bloomberg today. Here it is: Investors Hate Leverage Like It’s 2009, According to This Metric. Here’s the main chart of the Bloomberg pure leverage portfolio. The underlying jist of the article is this, Investors have ditched stocks of companies that are highly leveraged, just like back at the height of […]
What Real Returns Should Bond Investors Expect?
At 2.9%, the 10-Year Treasury yield is near its highest level in the past 4 years. At the current rate of inflation (2.2% CPI in the past year), this translates into a real yield of 0.7% (real yield = nominal yield minus inflation). Is such a real yield good or bad value for Treasury bond […]
Moby Dick Guns For Sister Semiconductor Mermaid
I shot this photo using my iPhone, while on a whale watching boat. The boat took us on the Pacific Ocean about an hour north of Puerto Vallarta. Last week, I compared Semiconductors (SMH), not only to Wonder Woman, as I have done many times before, but also to a mermaid. After all, she flies […]
Gains From Trade
There are joint and distributional gains from trade. That a rising tide lifts all boats (joint gains) is nice in theory but how those gains are distributed is critical in the competition among nations. Within a country, trade exposes some sectors to competition, and there are some who gain and some who lose. The powers of the […]
Analyzing Micron’s Most-Bullish Analyst Call Ever
Audio Length: 07:43 On Monday, Micron received its most-bullish analyst call ever when Nomura Instinet raised its 12-month price target for the stock to $100 from $55. That projection represents about an 83% upside to MU’s Friday’s close and marks the highest price target out of the 26 research firms that cover the company, according […]
Why Our European Financial Sector Outlook Is Bullish In 2018
EUFN, the iShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF tracks the investment performance of an index composed of European equities in the financials sector. We consider EUFN a good way to gain exposure to the financial sector in Europe and it also provides a good overview of the sector in the region for analysis purposes. This article will provide our updated […]
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update: WLI Down From Last Week
Friday’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 149.3, down 1.0 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.29%, down from 3.66% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 5.7, down from the previous week. “Up is […]
WTI/RBOB Rise After Smaller Than Expected Crude Build
Anxiety over Rexit and growing concerns that global demand might not absorb swelling US supplies sent WTI/RBOB notably lower today but prices rebounded modestly after API showed notable product draws and smaller than expected crude build. “The EIA report yesterday about the expected increase in shale output next month certainly weighed on things,” John Kilduff, founding partner […]
