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Archives by Year:
E We Like Party City In 2018
Party City (PRTY) is a growing name that we think is well positioned for growth in the next year or two. This company offers products that people can use for all sorts of occasions. It is a niche play, and it is a successful operation. Of course, this type of company relies on consumers having […]
E Are American Consumers Spending Beyond Their Means?
U.S. consumer spending finished relatively strongly in 2017. Americans increased their consumer spending 0.4% in December, a solid expansion but slower than the larger spending burst seen in November. U.S. households partly supported their spending in December by dropping their personal saving rate fell to a twelve-year low. The PCE Price Index rose only 0.1% […]
Market Risk Warning Clears
My market risk indicator finally cleared its warning that was issued on 2/9/2018. We didn’t get the further downside that I expected (based on the odds), but our longs performed well enough that it blunted the loss from the volatility hedge (which held up relatively well due to a volatile month). My portfolio suffered a .6% […]
EUR/GBP Could Drop To .8800
One of the biggest stories this past week was European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s post monetary policy meeting comments. They sent the euro tumbling against the U.S. dollar because Draghi was not nearly as optimistic as the changes in the policy statement suggests. The central bank head emphasized the need for policy accommodation, the […]
Understanding How Trade Deficits Arise
Given that trade and tariffs are so much in the news, I explain how trade imbalances arise, and therefore why tariffs make no sense. Video Length: 00:04:47 Economists who broadly understand that trade deficits accompany budget deficits express it in terms of national accounts, in this equation. (Imports – Exports) = (Investment – Savings) + […]
Mutual Fund Whale Goes “All In” On Junk Bonds
A mutual fund whale likes to time the junk bond market. The whale is back to “all in” via ETFs. Bloomberg reports A Mutual Fund Whale Makes Big Bets on Junk Bonds—Using ETFs. In early February, most of the investing world was watching stocks take a tumble. Matt Pasts, the manager of BTS Tactical Fixed Income […]
The Latest Look At The Total Return Roller Coaster – Friday, March 9
Note: We’ve updated the charts below based on monthly data through February. Here’s an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted […]
The Tortoise Economy Vs. The Hare Market
Happy Bull Market Birthday! Today is the ninth birthday of this equity bull market, a rather impressive run that has generated roughly 5x in returns within an economy that has grown at a yawn-inducing pace. As the third longest bull market in history, this is an impressive day in an otherwise unimpressive week in the […]
Inflation, Deflation, And Bond Market Returns
Inflation. Deflation. Two words often heard in conversations about the bond market. Why? Because bond investors tend to demand higher yields in periods of higher inflation and lower yields in periods of lower inflation or deflation. Looking at a long-term chart of yields and inflation, the relationship is clear. Data Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data […]
