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Archives by Year:
Stocks & Bond Yields Jump After Mixed Messages From Payrolls
Dow futures jumped 200 points, Treasury yields spiked, and the dollar index dumped-n-pumped back to unchanged as payrolls beat but average hourly earnings growth slowed modestly… offering The Fed a bone. And the dollar dropped… then bounced back to unch Treasury yields are spiking higher…
What A Dictator Wants
Apparently, President Donald Trump knows what a dictator wants. They want to be treated rough. Instead of being coddled and respected, they want to make sure that the guy they are dealing with is as tough as he is, and only then can you gain his respect, or maybe his fear. Instead of starting a […]
The Sun Is Shining Again
With the recent trade wars now seen as less damaging than perhaps at first sight, and with Donald and Kim now threatening to become the best of buddies, financial markets are seeing a shift in sentiment as the sun peeps out from behind the clouds once more. And this is signaled most strongly in the […]
BOJ Maintains Stimulus Ahead Of Kuroda’s Possible Exit
The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary stimulus on Friday at Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s last policy meeting before possible reappointment. The central bank kept its asset purchase program unchanged, citing weak inflation rate and external risks, while at the same time stating that the bank is not thinking of adjusting its monetary policy until 2 […]
Rail Week Ending March 2018: Movements Up 3.3% In February
Week 9 of 2018 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The rolling averages remain mixed. Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis for […]
Metcash Delivers The Goods Down Under
Every New York stock exchange trading day I’m posting a daily dividend stock or fund review. I’ll share the three chief qualities of just one equity or fund that could be selected for a dividend stock portfolio I’ve named the Safari to Sweet Success. This week my Safari portfolio is adding a company from the […]
US Futures Tread Water Ahead Of “Average Hourly Earnings” Report
After a barrage of breaking, surprise headlines and geopolitical developments, markets fall back to the familiar rhythm of trading the monthly payrolls (+205K exp), or rather, the far more important average hourly earnings (+2.8% Y/Y exp.) report. This morning, global shares hit a one-week high before easing a touch, as caution ahead of jobs data, and a […]
All Eyes On The BOJ: From Down-Cycle Risks To Stimulus Action?
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will hold its first policy board meeting with the newly appointed board members on April 26 and 27. In our view, there is a growing probability of the “dovish” faction gaining momentum, with at least two (and possibly three) of the nine board members voting for added monetary stimulus. The reason for […]
EUR/USD Breaks Support Line Via Wave ABC Pattern
EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD made a bearish retracement as expected in yesterday’s analysis named “EUR/USD Prepares for ABC Zigzag in Bearish Wave 2”. A bullish breakout above resistance (red) could start the wave 5 (pink) whereas a break below support makes a downtrend more likely. 1 hour The EUR/USD is indeed building a bearish […]
Are We In Late Cycle? Implications For Gold
In the previous edition of the Market Overview, we explored the fascinating history of bull and bear cycles in both the U.S. dollar and gold. Since then, the idea of cyclicity doesn’t lead me to drop off, disrupting my sleep cycles. Let’s then dig into the topic. We start with the business cycles, as in the recent Gold News Monitor we wrote […]
