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Archives by Year:
GBP/USD Forecast Mar. 5-9 – Brexit Remains Central
GBP/USD dropped on the acrimony between the UK and the EU over Brexit. The topic remains left, right and center in the first full week of March. Here are the key events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. The EU published an explosive draft stating that the UK may be suspended from the Single Market during […]
US Will Overtake Russia To Become Top Oil Producer By 2023
The International Energy Association (IEA) says the US will overtake Russia and become the leading oil producer by 2023. The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. Will Be the World’s Largest Oil Producer by 2023, Says IEA. U.S. crude production is expected to reach a record of 12.1 million barrels a day in 2023, up about 2 […]
S&P Earnings Are Strong And Optimistic For 2018
The constituents of the S&P 500 are wrapping up an extremely strong 4th quarter earnings season. Even before tax reform kicks in, corporations reached record operating profit margins at 10.4%. Furthermore, companies beat on the top and bottom line with over 75% beating estimates which is an eight-year high. Looking ahead, it is no surprise that earnings […]
High Yield ETF Shell Game On Full Display
Ok, dammit. One of the things that’s been bugging the hell out of me for at least two years is the prospect of active mutual funds using HY ETFs as a liquidity sleeve or, more to the point, as what amounts to a cash substitute. Basically, they’re managing flows with ETFs in order to avoid […]
Why Are Banks Shuttering Branches?
from the St Louis Fed — this post authored by Julie Stackhouse On Feb. 6, the Wall Street Journal published a startling statistic: Between June 2016 and June 2017, more than 1,700 U.S. bank branches were closed, the largest 12-month decline on record.1 Structural Shift That large drop, while surprising, is part of a trend in […]
US Will Be World’s Largest Oil Producer By 2023, But There Is A Catch
Last month, the US accomplished a historic achievement: thanks to soaring shale production, America surpassed Saudi Arabia as the world’s second largest oil producer, pumping over 10 million barrels per day, while Saudi Arabia remains stuck just below the key mark as a result of the ongoing self-imposed production limit, meant to push the price […]
Chart Of The Week: China Property Outlook
This week the “Chart of the Week” is focused on the outlook for China’s property market. The Chinese property market is perhaps one of the most important markets in the world, if not the most. What happens to this market has direct flow-on effects to global commodity prices, emerging markets and commodity producers, and considerable influence on […]
E What Investors Should Expect In March
Market Outlook March is actually a pretty good month. February on average is the third-worst-performing month for the S&P 500 going back to 1945, as Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, mentioned on CNBC. Since that year, the S&P 500 Index has been up 66% of the time in March. Paul Hickey, the co-founder of […]
Italian Stocks Won’t Get A Boost From The Election
As Italians voted over the weekend, polls highlighted how divided the country was. The country is split between populists with anti-migrant views, euro-skeptics and a centrist coalition led by an octogenarian who isn’t eligible to hold office until next year because of a tax evasion conviction. Problems extend beyond the country’s political parties. Economic growth is lagging. […]
Economic Policy Uncertainty And Risk Indices: March 5, 2018
Remember those quaint notions of policy uncertainty holding back growth? Well, what to make of recent moves in uncertainty and risk indices, given all the talk of trade wars? Figure 1: US daily Economic Policy Uncertainty index from Baker, Bloom and Davis (dark blue), and seven day centered moving average (red). Orange shading denotes Trump Administration. […]
