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Archives by Year:
The Big Four Economic Indicators: December Nonfarm Employment
Note: This commentary has been updated to include this morning’s release of Nonfarm Employment for December. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There […]
Where The Jobs Were In December: Who’s Hiring… And Who Isn’t
December was expected to be a weaker month than October and November, as a result of the double-whammy of the post-hurricane rebound ending and an adverse winter storm effect, but virtually nobody on Wall Street expected the 3-sigma outlier December payrolls report to be as poor as it was. So which sectors were responsible for […]
Constellation Brands (STZ) Q3 Earnings Beat, Ups FY18 View
Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ – Free Report) delivered robust third-quarter fiscal 2018 results, wherein both the top and bottom line topped estimates and improved year over year. Notably, this marked the 13th consecutive quarter of earnings beat for the company. Further, to inspire investors’ confidence management raised earnings guidance for fiscal 2018. However, shares of Constellation Brands declined […]
E Lords A-Leaping
News in 2018 is proving predictably scandalous. The Brazilian Minister for Industry, Marcos Perreira, resigned on Wednesday. As a result, the bolsa in São Paulo rose 3.4% (the Brazil S&P index). Whether he was implicated in the Lava Jato (car wash) scandal or did something else naughty, I know not. But it is not illegal […]
November 2017 Manufacturing New Orders Improves
US Census says manufacturing new orders improved, Our analysis agrees – and the rolling averages improved. Analyst Opinion of Census Manufacturing Sales According to the seasonally adjusted data, it was aircraft which accounted for much of the increase – but the improvement was widespread. The data in this series is noisy so I would rely […]
December Jobs Report: 148K New Jobs, Worse Than Forecast
This morning’s employment report for December showed a 148K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was worse than forecasts. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The Investing.com consensus was for 190K new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1%. Revisions were made going back to January 2013, thus our delay in posting today’s report. Here […]
This Is What Can Happen To Bitcoin Plays
Frightening to think how many retail investors were in this one:
Warren Buffett Won A Decade-Old $1M Bet
In 2007, Warren Buffett challenged finance professionals in the hedge fund industry to accept a bet that Buffett described in his 2016 letter to shareholders of Berkshire-Hathaway (see p. 21-21): In Berkshire’s 2005 annual report, I argued that active investment management by professionals – in aggregate – would over a period of years underperform the returns achieved […]
A Sessions-Proof Strategy: Geographic Rotation In Cannabis Stocks
Earlier today, United States Attorney General Jeff Sessions issued a memo regarding the enforcement (or lack thereof) of federal laws regarding cannabis. The memo has already caused a U.S. cannabis stock sell-off, and many are wondering if it will continue throughout the rest of the week. Today’s U.S. Sell-Off To state the obvious, Jeff Sessions is the […]
