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Central Banks Have Officially Pulled The Plug On The Markets
Last week the markets rallied on hype and hope of a potential trade deal between the US and China… and the fact it was options expiration week. With those items out of the way, the markets will now begin to adjust to economic realities again. Those economic realities? That the global economy is slowing… and […]
The Ultimate Stablecoin
A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away we wrote a series of articles arguing that bitcoin is not money and is not sound. Bitcoin was skyrocketing at the time, as we wrote most of them between July 30 and Oct 1 last year. Back in those halcyon days, volatility was deemed to be […]
WTI Slumps Back To $55 Handle As Russia Delays Production-Cut Decision
Oil prices are re-tumbling this morning after weekend hopes for ‘news’ of production cuts to stabilize prices failed to appear. “It appears that the market takes a production cut for granted,” PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga wrote in a report. “We’ll see if it is right after the next OPEC meeting on Dec. 6. It is not unreasonable to […]
Mild Weakness In The Futures
I’m coming into today with two long positions, following a 100% cash position at the start of Friday. I will look to add 1-2 new long positions today, if the bulls manage to reverse the morning’s slight weakness and rally the market higher. Indicators Volatility Index (VIX) – VIX saw a dramatic sell-off on Friday with […]
Quiet Start To A Quiet Week
It’s been a quiet start to what has historically been a quiet week, and the way things have been lately if this trend keeps up for the remainder for the day, that would be a win for the bulls. Pre-market equity futures are pretty much unchanged versus fair value on what has historically been the weakest day of […]
E A Market Week Headlined By Black Friday Sales & Peak U.S. Dollar Probabilities
In a holiday-shortened trading week ahead, the S&P 500 weekly expected move is now $47. That might seem like the market will express less volatility than the previous week (which held a $50 weekly expected move), but I wouldn’t hold fast and hard to that expectation given the quantitative nature of the market. We could […]
The Cost Of Government Debt Is Immediate
Most warnings about large increases in government indebtedness revolve around future repayment obligations. For example, there is the concern that greatly increasing the government debt in the present will necessitate much higher taxes in the future. For another example, there is the concern that if the debt load is cumbersome at a time of very […]
Murder Mayhem, Oil And Gas
Murder Mayhem, Oil and Gas Oil is trying to make a comeback against a backdrop of murder, and mayhem, not to mention some winter weather thrown in. While the oil rally Friday was slowed by a report that Iraq had restarted exports of Kirkuk oil, halted a year ago due to a standoff between the central government […]
Tech Index Facing Must Hold Support Test
This chart looks at the Nasdaq Composite Index over the past 22-years on a monthly basis. The chart highlights that the index has spent the majority of the past 18-years inside of rising channel (1). The rally off the 2009 lows hit the top of the channel a couple of months ago at (2), where it looks to […]
The End Of The Tax Cut Boost
Last week, I touched on the issue of corporate profits and tax cuts. While the promise was that tax cuts were going to a massive boost to economic growth, the reality has been quite different. To wit: “The benefit of a reduction in tax rates is extremely short-lived since we compare earnings and profit growth […]
