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Archives by Year:
What Happens In A Stock Market Recession And How To Survive
Photo by jes2ufoto on Canva Rising interest rates, a more assertive Federal Reserve, challenges in addressing inflation, and geopolitical issues have all posed risks to the U.S. equity market, potentially impacting how users invest stocks in the U.S.The market seemed resilient for most of the year, with stocks rallying despite these concerns. However, recent trends suggest a shift, with the […]
Is A Severe Recession Imminent?
Image Source: Unsplash — CPI and the 2-minute week– Oil –Bonds– WMT, CSCO, PANW, BABA, BIDU– VIX is a broken metric– SKEW high flyin’ SPX Expected Move —- last week — 63.82 (5-day expected move)– next week– 48.54 (3 1/2-day expected move)Video Length: 00:21:23More By This Author:Bonds And Oil Signal Economic Threat Softer Data And A Stronger Market? CPI […]
S&P 500, Dow Log Longest Weekly Win Streak Since July
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq scored modest fourth-straight daily wins on Friday, while the Dow settled just above breakeven. All three major benchmarks saw a third consecutive week in the black, which hasn’t happened for the Dow and S&P 500 since July, and for the Nasdaq since June. Softer-than-expected inflation data was a major driving force behind […]
The Market Is Not Ready For What’s Coming
Image source: Pixabay The world has watched intently as the world’s most influential central bank, the Federal Reserve, has implemented the most aggressive interest rate hike campaign in history — on a % change over time basis.But that campaign may now be over.And if it is, it suggests opportunity in the long Treasury bond market.Video length […]
Macro: Retail Sales
Retail sales make up about a quarter of GDP, so an important monthly number. I saw a lot of headlines saying this was a disappointing number. But that isn’t the case, the print was actually good. Sequentially, expectations were low for this print because September 2023 and October of 2022 were so strong. The sequential […]
What’s Behind The Volatility In U.S. Treasury Yields?
Video Length: 00:05:32 On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, and Equity Manager Research Analyst Michelle Batjargal discussed the recent volatility in U.S. government bond yields and its impact on markets. They also chatted about the state of the economy in both Europe and China. […]
5 Cheap Strong Buy Bank Stocks In 2023
Image Source: Pexels With inflation coming down, many are thinking that the Federal Reserve may execute the soft landing for the economy. If that were to happen, some industries that have been beat up as the Fed has raised rates could come back into favor.The banks are cheap but the stocks have not been able to […]
Goldilocks Or Dorothy?
Many of us have used Goldilocks as a metaphor for desirable economic conditions. Not too hot, not too cold, just right. We’ve also taken to calling Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as “Goldilocks in a suit” on multiple occasions for his tendency to soften his messages during post-FOMC press conferences. It’s a bit odd to consider that a naïve young girl […]
EU Carbon Hits Year-To-Date Lows
Image Source: Unsplash EUA Dec-23 price (EUR/t) Refinitiv Eikon, ING Research EUAs fall on demand pressures In November, EU Allowances (EUAs) traded down towards EUR75/t, the lowest levels seen this year. And this is after the market briefly broke above EUR100/t at the start of the year. By function, the longer-term outlook for EUAs remains constructive […]
GDP Q4 Nowcasts Of November 17th
Image Source: Pexels Lots of agreement around 2% SAAR, with the NY Fed at 2.45%. Here’s a graphic depiction of the implications for the level of GDP.Figure 1: Reported GDP from advance Q4 release (bold black), GDPNow (blue square), NY Fed nowcast (red *), St. Louis Fed news index (light green open triangle), Goldman Sachs tracking (pink […]
