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Archives by Year:
Learning From CoT: What Noncommercials Are Buying This Week
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 31, 2023.10-year note: Currently net short 627.7k, up 64.3k.The 10-year treasury yield has peaked. For three consecutive sessions last month, it tried to unsuccessfully take out five percent, with the high of 4.997 percent recorded on the 23rd. This was the highest print since July 2007. […]
Self-Employment Falls
Image Source: Pixabay“Davidson” submits:Household Employment is reported to decline 348,000 as Establishment Employment rose 150,000. Some of these changes can be attributed to the reduction of Self-Employed who left the Household series for the Establishment series. Retail Sales have tracked higher with the surprise rise in Vehicle Sales to the 16mil SAAR(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).Rising economic […]
Risk And Uncertainty, Market And Geopolitical
One way to visualize: Disposition of some US naval groups (CSGs, etc.), as of Nov. 2.Source: USNI.Highlighting the seriousness of the situation, it has been two decades since two CSGs have operated in the Mediterranean simultaneously; and two decades prior to that for the previous episode.Another:Figure 1: VIX (left scale, blue), Geopolitical Risk index (right scale, tan), Global […]
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Nov. 6 & 13
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of November 6 November 7 International Trade - September -$61.0B -58.3 -60.0 Consumer Credit - September $10.0B -15.6 10.0 November 8 Wholesale Inventories - September 0.0 […]
Elf On The Shelf
I don’t know anything about cosmetics or the businesses that crank it out, but apparently E.L.F. is kicking Estee Lauder‘s ass.Here we see the chart of ELF:Take one letter away, and you get their (much older) competitor, EL:The percentage chart of these two together shows who has pulled away and is winning the race.More By This Author:One-Sixth Remains It’s a […]
Dollar Is Vulnerable After Worst Week In Months
Next week is expected to be quiet regarding economic data for the US following an exhaustive week of releases. The weekly Jobless Claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday stand out as the week’s highlights. In the following week, the Consumer Price Index is scheduled for release. The RBA […]
Target Recovers From Its 3-Year Low With Key Consumer Trends, Quarter Results In Spotlight
Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) is up nearly 5% in the past five days as optimism builds on the stock. The gain overcame a losing streak that saw the stock hit a three-year low of $103 in early October. The previous losses have been caused by dampened discretionary spending, affecting most retail stocks.Target reports its Q3 2023 earnings […]
Market Briefing For Monday, Nov. 6
A buying frenzy resumed Friday, after a softer Jobs report lowered yields; a plus for sentiment; but remember in some sectors a recession portends poor interim earnings. We’ve already seen a good bit of that. Retail especially.Disassembling the Jobs data reveals more skepticism than the mild decline; what will matter is the ‘Fed’ recognizing the […]
Uncharted ’20s, Part II
<<Read Uncharted '20s, Part IIt’s interesting that the dollar yield of gold (the yellow line on the chart below) hasn’t lagged behind the Sensex and S&P 500 indices since the beginning of this decade, which are leading the way in the world’s largest economy stock indices. This is happening despite a significant increase in interest […]
US30 Analysis Today And Week Ahead Forecast – Saturday, Nov. 4
The month did not end as bearish with a breakout to the downside, but the price returned up. The whole week has been bullish where the price broke two resistance levels, at 33000.00 and 33600.00The price has gone outside of a daily downtrend channel which is suggesting turnaround in the market trend. An important level for […]
