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Archives by Year:
Ducks Are Lining Up For FOMC Restraint And Continued Market
The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) for November was released today, and although it rose more than expected (likely due to disruptions from heightened global hostilities), it still suggests inflation will continue its gradual retreat, with a reading near the long-run average. But let me start by talking about October’s inflation indicators. Last […]
Facing Fiscal Reality: Navigating The End Of The Debt Supercycle
Image Source: Unsplash The past decade has seen unprecedented levels of deficit spending and debt accumulation by the US government. According to the data, this unsustainable path will eventually lead to fiscal and economic crises if left unaddressed. As the eventual problems come into clearer focus, prudent Americans would be wise to understand the challenges and […]
Using Fed Projections To Infer The Term Premium?
Image Source: Pixabay I was passed along the article “Views from the Floor — Tighter and Tighter” by the Man Institute published last month. It discusses using the FOMC long-term projections to infer the term premium in the 10-year Treasury yield.The methodology is straightforward (I have a busy week, so I have not gathered the data to replicate […]
Happy Days For How Long?
With less than a month left to go to close out the year, it’s a good time to reflect on the highs and lows that market participants have experienced. While the year began with a rocky start due to the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, the market continued to power forward, stumbling in Q3 as 10-year […]
Microsoft And Meta To Use New AMD Chip As An Alternative To Nvidia
Image Source: Unsplash Advanced Micro Devices Inc (Nasdaq: AMD) ended slightly down on Wednesday even after Meta Platforms Inc (Nasdaq: META) and Microsoft Corp (Nasdaq: MSFT) said they’ll use its latest AI chip as an alternative to Nvidia Corp (Nasdaq: NVDA). Is MI300X comparable to Nvidia’s H100? Instinct MI300X – a new accelerator that AMD says will […]
FT-IGM (Booth School) U.S. Macroeconomists Survey On The Outlook
Survey results are out, for responses as of 12/4. FT article here.Survey median GDP matches the SPF November outlook pretty well, taking today’s GDPNow nowcast for Q4:Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow estimate as of 12/6 (light blue square), FT-IGM 2024Q4 GDP (red square), 90%ile band (gray +), and November 2023 Survey of Professional Forecasters median (blue line). […]
Stocks And Precious Metals Charts – Pushing And Shoving
The markets are pretty much running in place ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.Unless there is some exogenous event, all we might see until then is high frequency pushing and shoving.Have a pleasant evening. More By This Author:Stocks And Precious Metals Charts – Longing For Virtue In The Darkness Stocks And Precious Metals […]
Market Talk – Wednesday, Dec. 6
ASIA:November, core inflation in Tokyo, Japan’s capital, slowed down, aligning with the central bank’s expectation that cost-push pressures in the country will gradually ease. Service prices, a focus for the central bank in assessing wage-driven inflation, experienced their fastest increase since 1994, primarily attributed to a spike in hotel fees due to increased tourism. The […]
Santa Claus Rally Cancelled?
Image Source: Pexels Market Volatility and Santa Claus Rally: There’s emerging volatility in the stock market, raising questions about whether the typical Santa Claus rally will happen. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are experiencing fluctuations, but these are within the expected daily move, suggesting the markets haven’t reached an extreme volatility state.Analysis of Tech Stocks and Nasdaq: […]
Stocks Drop On December 6 As Growth Concerns Surface
OilStocks finished lower as risk-off seemed to be a theme today, with oil prices slumping below $70. Oil has been a harbinger of all things these days, and the best thing that can happen with oil, at least over the next 6 to 12 months, is to do nothing. Rising oil could stoke more inflation […]
