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Archives by Year:
Dow, S&P 500 Suffer 3rd-Straight Loss
All three major indexes settled with losses today, brushing off modest midday gains and this morning’s upbeat ADP private payrolls data. Despite a softening labor market — a good sign for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy — the Dow and S&P 500 are now mired in a three-day losing streak. Despite the skid, Wall Street’s […]
“Big” Drops In Treasury Yields
Relative to where they were just over a month ago, Treasury yields are down sharply as bond prices have rallied. Earlier today, we posted on X that the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) has nearly fully erased what was a 14% YTD decline as of 10/19 on a total return basis. The Treasury rally can also […]
Macro: ADP Employment
Private companies added 103,000 workers to payrolls in November. This disappointed as consensus was expecting 123,000 additions. Also, the October number was revised down by 7,000 jobs erasing some of the strength off September’s 32 month low in hiring of 89,000.On an annual basis employment is growing 2.035% and continues to slow from the hiring […]
Eurozone Retail Trade Ticks Up Slightly In October
The 0.1% increase in retail trade means that volumes have been broadly unchanged since August. After two years of declining retail volumes, we are reluctant to call a change in trend just yet though. That said, we do expect improvements in 2024.Image Source: Unsplash Retail volumes have fallen for about two years in a row now. […]
What Happens To Gold Price When It Finally Rebounds?
The very recent hours in gold were calm, but don’t let that fool you. After testing new highs, gold is likely to move far, up or down.Previously, I wrote that the price of gold was about to decline after its massive reversal and that’s exactly what happened. The decline is now likely to continue, but there’s […]
Is The Gold/U.S. Dollar Ratio Setting Up For A Major Breakout?
Precious metals prices have been creeping higher with Gold trading over $2000/oz.A weaker US Dollar has provided a nice tailwind and Gold bugs celebrated a new monthly closing high last week… So, is it time for Gold to finally break out to new all-time highs?Well, today’s “monthly” chart of the Gold to U.S. Dollar ratio […]
Microsoft Upgrades Copilot To GPT-4 Turbo And DALL-E 3
Microsoft (MSFT) has announced it will upgrade Copilot to run OpenAI’s GPT-4 Turbo and the DALL-E 3 image generator. Currently being tested with select users, GPT-4 Turbo will make Copilot more useful by increasing its context window (input capacity) to 125,000 tokens, which represents an increase from roughly 50 to 300 pages and dramatically improves […]
WTI Plunges Below $70.00 In Upbeat U.S. Inventory Report, China’s Economy Concerns
Photo by American Public Power Association on Unsplash The US crude oil benchmark dropped below $70.00 per barrel after a solid inventory report in the United States (US) concerned market participants, outweighing the drawdown in crude stocks. WTI is trading at $69.52, down more than 3%. WTI at $69.52, down over 3% as robust US inventory report amplifies demand worries; […]
The Jobs Boom Is Clearly Behind Us, So What’s Ahead?
ADP and BLS data via the St. Louis Fed. Chart by MishToday, ADP released its National Employment Report for November. The BLS reports Nonfarm Payrolls and employment levels on Friday.The Job Boom is Behind Us“Restaurants and hotels were the biggest job creators during the post-pandemic recovery. But that boost is behind us, and the return to trend in […]
Words Matter
Image Source: Pexels Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Pullbacks in the markets end quickly when some Fed official, or better yet, a couple of FOMC members say something “dovish”. You know, something like, “We see signs of progress on inflation.” Or “Policy is appropriate given the current data.” Or, well, anything including the […]
