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Archives by Year:
USD/JPY Price Accumulating Bullish Energy Ahead Of US ISM
The USD/JPY price is trading at 148.02 at the time of writing and looks overbought in the short term. After the recent rally, the pair may correct lower amid profit-taking.FreepikThe price edged higher yesterday as the Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, and Unemployment Claims came in better than expected, while Core PCE Price Index, Personal […]
Weekly Market Outlook – The Gains Are Getting Tougher To Make
The market managed to make yet-another gain last week… the fifth in a row. But, it’s clearly losing momentum. Then again, now up nearly 12% from its late-October low, it could be expected to pause for a breather here.FreepikThere is one important red flag worth noting, however. That’s where the S&P 500 as well as […]
Weekly Commentary: Rule Of Thumb
Let’s get November documented, starting with notable headlines: “Biggest Blowout in Bonds Since the 1980s Sparks Everything Rally.” “S&P 500 Has One of Best November Gains in Century.” “Munis Haven’t Rallied So Much in a Month Since Volcker Ran Fed.” “Munis Make It a November to Remember While Smashing Records.”Freepik“November Was Once-in-a-Generation Month for Assets.” […]
GDPNow — Down On The Week — As Are Bond Yields
After considering all the data this week, the GDPNow estimate is 1.2% growth. This is down from the initial estimate of 2.3% on Oct 27th and down from 2.1% at the end of last week.FreepikThe big dial mover was today’s ISM report. Specifically the report had negative repercussions for goods consumption, business equipment investment and […]
The Yield Curve May Be Sending A Warning Message For Stocks
Video Length: 00:11:12 The yield curve is likely to turn positive sooner than most investors think and that means it may be a time to be cautious.More By This Author:6.5 Billion Reasons Stocks Surged On November 30, 2023 Stocks Give Back Big Gains On November 29, 2023 Stocks Have No Juice As The 2-Year Rate Plunges […]
Gold: Finally!
If you caught last Tuesday’s tweet (@deMeadvillePro, Gold then 2042) you saw where this was going: “Santa clearly is contemplating a new all-time Gold high by Christmas. ‘Twould be 2075 spot a/o 2089 FebFuts. (On verra…)” FreepikAnd so for Gold, as the expression goes, “Santa came early this year.” In settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 2092, February Gold […]
Market Briefing For Monday, Dec. 4th
Brushing aside Powell comments Friday afternoon, S&P held traction. He’d tried to hint at tightening financial conditions (nonsense, given softer data). At the same time I’m open to a pause-to-refresh move this month; I am currently not looking for new disorderly catastrophe. Such ideas are also nonsense.On the other hand, besides the Middle East war resumed and […]
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of December 5 And 12
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of December 4 December 4 Factory Orders – October -2.5% 2.8 -2.6 Durable Goods Orders -5.4 4.6 Nondurable Goods Orders 0.5 1.0 December 5 […]
From CoT, A Look At What Noncommercials, Large Specs Are Buying
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 28, 2023.10-year note: Currently net short 685.4k, up 27.2k.Non-commercials do not seem ready to let go of their bearish bias just yet. This week, their holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures increased 4.1 percent week over week to 685,354 contracts. This is lower than […]
Where I See Opportunity – In Markets, In Traders
I’ve been involved in trading the U.S. stock market since 1977. My professional work with traders began in 2003 and continues to this day. So I’ve seen my share of markets, and I’ve seen quite a bit in terms of what goes into trading success.What I find noteworthy in recent markets is the degree to […]
