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Archives by Year:
Buy Muni Bonds To Protect Your Cash From Uncle Sam
Image Source: Pixabay As you know, I’ve been pounding the table on bonds lately. Interest rates are at their highest levels in nearly a generation, which is finally allowing bond buyers to earn some real income.If rates decline next year (as many are expecting), that should lead to profits as well, as bond prices move in […]
CPI Surprises Markets, But Miners Prepared Their Own Surprise
So, the CPI and – more importantly, from the Fed’s point of view – core CPI was lower than expected, and the markets soared. What’s next?As always, it’s imperative to look at the context before saying that something is bullish or bearish. And the context is… What happened to gold miners when inflation news surprised the market […]
FX Daily: Dollar Bears May Have Jumped The Gun
Image Source: Unsplash The dollar plummeted yesterday after a softer-than-expected US CPI reading. But we still think a turn in activity data – more than the disinflation story – is needed to take the dollar sustainably lower, and the move appears overdone also from a short-term valuation perspective. US retail sales will tell us whether the dollar can […]
Bitcoin And Ethereum: Bitcoin Stays Above $35,000 Level
Bitcoin chart analysisThe first two days of this week were very bearish for the price of Bitcoin. Yesterday, we saw the decline and formation of this week’s low at the $35,000 level. The fall is stopped at that level, and the price starts a positive consolidation that takes us up to the $35,700 level. We encounter some […]
GBP/JPY Drops From 188.00 On Soft UK Inflation Report
Image source: Pixabay GBP/JPY corrects gradually from 188.00 as UK consumer inflation declines. UK Sunak has fulfilled his promise of halving inflation to 5.4% by the year-end. Investors expect that the pace of transition from BoJ’s ultra-easy monetary stance to policy normalization would be slow. The GBP/JPY pair drops after failing to sustain above the […]
Fall 2023 Snapshot Of The Future For S&P 500 Dividends
The outlook for S&P 500 (SPX) quarterly dividends per share continued to improve during the month since our first snapshot of the future for the index’ dividends per share through each quarter of 2024.FreepikIn between then and now, the outlook dimmed as long term interest rates spiked at the end of October 2023 before brightening in the […]
U.K. Market Commentary: Wednesday, November 15
CPI Slides 2%In reassuring news for both UK households and the BOE, UK inflation was seen cooling sharply last month. Headline annualised inflation fell back to 4.6% from 6.7% prior, below the 4.7% the market was looking for. This marked the largest deflationary move in two-years in the UK. Core inflation was seen falling too, […]
Employment Is Sending Signals: Recession Or Normalization?
Image Source: Pexels In February 2023, we wrote Janet Yellen Should Focus On HOPE. The article walks through Michael Kantrowitz’s HOPE model. HOPE, or Housing, New Orders (ISM), Corporate Profits, and Employment, provides a handy acronym to track parts of the economy that are interest rate sensitive and tend to be leading recession indicators.As we wrote in the article: These sectors […]
Market Responds Aggressively To US Inflation Data
Image Source: Pixabay It comes as no surprise to see the market reaction to Tuesday’s round of softer than expected US inflation data. As we’ve highlighted many times throughout the year, investors are looking for any and every excuse to pressure the Federal Reserve into reconsidering its higher for longer policy stance in favor of a […]
You Won’t Believe How Bonds Reacted To The CPI
Image source: Pixabay Massive buying in global bonds sparked by the US CPI. The consumer price estimates weren’t shocking or even much of a surprise, instead, they confirmed a lot about economic risks as well as what has been happening in bonds of late. The selloff isn’t just over; it was never what everyone said it […]
