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Archives by Year:
Weekly Commentary: Bubble Kings
From an analytical perspective, it’s fascinating how things can turn wild at the end of cycles. While mortgage Credit expanded at double-digit annual rates between 2001 and 2005, terminal phase Bubble excess went into overdrive with 2006’s $1 TN of subprime mortgage derivatives. Wall Street alchemists worked overtime to create sophisticated structures that intermediated increasingly […]
What Advisors Need To Know About Cryptocurrencies
You have all heard about bitcoin, the cryptocurrency whose mysterious creator, the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto, has been nominated for a Nobel Prize – even though his, her, or their true identity remains stubbornly unknown. FreepikSpurred on by breathtaking price runups, some clients may even have asked you if they should invest in them, or if it’s […]
A Great Gift For Gold As It Climbs Into Christmas
You likely shan’t glean this from anywhere else, so here we go. In this 23rd year of the 21st century, for these past five trading days leading up to Christmas, Gold recorded a net weekly gain of +1.5%, settling Friday at 2065.Freepik For the same five-day stint in past years, percentage gains of better than +1.0% have […]
Forex Today: Dollar Struggles Ahead Of An Unusual Week
Holiday-thinned trading, a shortened week, and a light economic calendar point to abnormal price action in the last days of 2023. Will Santa’s rally continue? Will the US Dollar remain under pressure? Photo by Alexander Grey on Unsplash Here is what you need to know for next week: The economic calendar is light next week. Adding to this, holiday-thinned […]
Christmas Spending In The US To Break Records
Photo by Freestocks at Unsplash Americans are planning to increase their holiday spending this year, according to a Gallup poll, which believes Christmas spending in 2023 will be the highest on record since they began collecting data in 1999. The average American estimates they’ll spend on Christmas or other holiday gifts is $975, which is up from […]
CoT: Peek Into Future Thru Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 19, 2023.10-year note: Currently net short 687.6k, up 130.6k.In the last week of 2022, non-commercials were net short 344,209 contracts in 10-year note futures. This week, they held 687,572 contracts, up 130,641 from the prior week – the prior week being a week in which the […]
Last GDPNow Of The Year
And other forecasts and nowcasts: Figure 1: GDP reported (bold black), CBO (blue), SPF (tan), GDPNow (light blue square), Goldman Sachs (green circle), St. Louis Fed news index (orange inverted triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2023Q3 3rd release, CBO Economic Outlook Update (Dec.), Philadelphia Fed (Nov.), Atlanta Fed (12/22), NY Fed (12/22), GS (12/22), […]
Tax Loss Harvesting
Image Source: DepositPhotosI wrote the following to clients on tax loss harvesting, which is something many investors are either contemplating or doing this time of year. Tax Loss HarvestingI enjoy writing about taxes as much as I enjoy going to the dentist. But I feel what I am about to say is important. We – including […]
Gold Price Analysis: Pulls Back From $2,070 As Markets Hunker Down For Holidays
XAU/USD briefly tested above $2,070 on Friday before paring back toward the day’s opening bids. With the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) main interest rate at a 22-year high, markets are incredibly eager for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates, and receding US inflation is pinning investor hopes of an accelerated pace of Fed rate cuts in 2024.The […]
The Fundamental Disconnect In Small Caps: Price Vs. Dividend Growth
A unique phenomenon has emerged in U.S. small-cap equities. Amid the economic recovery during the post-pandemic environment, U.S. companies continued to pay an increasing amount of dividends to shareholders, without interruption. Small caps led the charge, growing trailing 12-month dividend totals for the Russell 2000 Index by over 40% since November 2020, a measure that nearly doubled the […]
