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Archives by Year:
Newcomb’s Paradox And The Banality Of Success
Image Source: Pexels In order to have a successful monetary policy, it is necessary to understand what success looks like. I fear that many pundits have the wrong view of success. They envision heroic central bankers valiantly fighting against cycles of too much spending and too little spending. In fact, that’s what failure looks like. To […]
Exxon Stock Downgraded Ahead Of Earnings
Image Source: Unsplash Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM) has gained about 5.0% over the past three weeks but a Mizuho analyst says it’s time to stop buying this energy stock. Exxon stock lost its buy rating at Mizuho Nitin Kumar downgraded the oil and gas behemoth this morning to “neutral” and lowered his price target to $117.The analyst […]
A Breather Or A Hangover?
Image Source: Pexels The new year is less than three days old, but I’ve already fielded several phone calls asking why stocks and bonds have gotten off to a rocky start. That’s typical – I seem to be more popular when markets don’t go up than when they do. Frankly, I don’t mind that. It’s a […]
An Insight Into Russia’s View On Gold
Image Source: Pixabay It is a year since Sergei Glazyev, Commissioner for Integration and Macroeconomics within the Eurasian Economic Commission, disclosed his views on gold and its value in trade. Undoubtedly, his opinion carries weight not only with President Putin to whom he is very close, but he also influenced Russian proposals for a new trade […]
S&P 500: Chart Analysis
Image Source: Pexels Bob Lang gives a technical analysis of the stock chart for the S&P 500.Video Length: 00:03:47More By This Author:How To Know If You’re A Stock Picker’s Market Market Blast – January 2 Market Blast – Friday, December 29
2024 Starts Rough
Assets bid up by irrational amounts eventually end up on clearance sale. Always. This is something to remember with the seven most expensive tech companies ending 2023 at their October 2021 price peaks (chart shown below, courtesy of All Star Charts), even while the Fed funds rate has moved from .25 to 5.5% and earnings […]
Foreign Term Spread Augmented Recession Model Prediction
Image Source: Pixabay Ahmed and Chinn (2023), coauthored with Rashad Ahmed, accepted at JMCB. The US and Foreign 10yr-3mo inversion remain deep (although not as deep as in March when last I posted).Figure 1: US 10 yr-3 mo term spread (blue), GDP weighted foreign (Canada, Germany, Japan, UK) 10 yr-3 mo term spread (tan), 5yr-to-10yr-3mo term spread for rest-of-advanced countries […]
EUR/USD Dips Amid Strong U.S. Data As Market Awaits Fed Minutes
Image Source: Unsplash The EUR/USD remained on the defensive since the first trading day of 2024, falling 0.27% on the day after economic data from the United States (US) suggests the economy remains robust, though the labor market cooled down. At the time of writing, the major is trading at 1.0910 after posting a daily high […]
ISM Manufacturing Production Turns Positive But New Orders Down 16th Month
ISM chart and excerpts below by permission from the Institute for Supply Management® ISM®Please consider the December 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® emphasis mine. The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in December, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.4 percent in December, up 0.7 percentage point compared to November’s reading of 46.7 percent. “This is the 14th month of […]
Are Small Cap Investors Getting Greedy At Important Resistance?
Image Source: Pexels Small-caps stocks have been a noticeable laggard for over two years.But a recent year-end rally has set the Russell 2000 (IWM) on fire. Will this mark a change in performance in the future?Today’s chart of the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) highlights its underperformance (see blue shaded area where IWM has traded sideways for two years). […]
